Stock fact sheet · data as of
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Retail · United States · High Yield Income
Is ADC undervalued?
At 66.56 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ADC trades 29% over the GLS average fair value of 51.60. 3 of the 9 models land above the price and 6 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (0 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 1.92 while DCF gives 158.19. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ADC under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for ADC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 158.19 | +138% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 47.88 | -28% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 20.35 | -69% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 2.44 | -96% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1.92 | -97% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 89.05 | +34% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 77.01 | +16% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 46.70 | -30% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 20.84 | -69% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -27.20 | -141% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 81.00 | +22% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - ADC passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.5 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.1%, ROE 3.3%, ROA 2.1% - with debt at 0.53 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.4%.
The dividend yield is high at 4.77% (payout ratio 166%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.5 / 10 | ROE | 3.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.53 | ROA | 2.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.4% | Payout ratio | 166% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 58: Fair
ADC scores 58 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 15/20, Stability 19/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 30% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (15 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 2,915 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.8M shares a day on a market cap of $8.3B, with a beta of 0.42 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -29% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.5/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 30% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 1.8M shares/day, $8.3B cap, beta 0.42 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Agree Realty Corporation reports earnings on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (0.2710 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Retail
The 12 companies below are the closest to Agree Realty Corporation by market cap within the REIT - Retail industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. | 27.43 | 23.66 | -16% | 65Good | $8.4B |
| NNN NNN REIT, Inc. | 41.15 | 37.64 | -9% | 60Fair | $7.8B |
| FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust | 105.68 | 74.69 | -41% | 54Fair | $9.2B |
| MAC The Macerich Company | 23.09 | 10.03 | -130% | 45Weak | $6.8B |
| REGCP Regency Centers Corporation | 21.82 | 39.05 | +44% | 39No options | $13.1B |
| REGCO Regency Centers Corporation | 21.35 | 38.84 | +45% | 39No options | $13.1B |
| REG Regency Centers Corporation | 71.77 | 48.52 | -48% | 56Fair | $13.1B |
| KRG Kite Realty Group Trust | 24.52 | 37.10 | +34% | 86Prime | $4.9B |
| PECO Phillips Edison & Co. | 37.58 | 31.75 | -18% | 58Fair | $4.8B |
| KIM Kimco Realty Corporation | 22.67 | 21.24 | -7% | 65Good | $15.2B |
| SKT Tanger Inc. | 34.33 | 22.28 | -54% | 52Fair | $3.9B |
| CURB Curbline Properties Corp. | 26.56 | 19.80 | -34% | 59Fair | $3.1B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ADC
Is ADC undervalued right now?
No: at 66.56 the stock trades 29% above the GLS average fair value of 51.60 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of ADC and what does it mean?
ADC scores 58 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ADC?
51.60 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Agree Realty Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close), 4 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ADC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 152 listed contracts with 2,915 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 30% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.