Stock fact sheet · data as of
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AESI · Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · United States · Speculative Income
Is AESI undervalued?
AESI closed at 6.73 on 5 Nov 2026, which is 21% above the GLS average fair value of 5.56 from 2 models. 1 of them value the shares below today's price. Our scans read that as "no margin of safety": the stock is not a value candidate at this price, whatever the quality numbers say.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files AESI under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan. It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for AESI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 0.2445 | -96% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 10.87 | +62% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -5.70 | -185% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 17.11 | +154% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: AESI passes 2 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is 5.1 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -2.8%, ROE -4.2%, ROA -2.3% - with debt at 0.48 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 10.98% (payout ratio 0%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Service 56%, Product 35%, Rental Revenue 9% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 2 / 9 | ROIC | -2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.1 / 10 | ROE | -4.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.48 | ROA | -2.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -40.9% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 21: Weak
AESI scores 21 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 21% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 2/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 4.6 years to repay its debt (over 3); and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 55 (under 60); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $841M (under $1.0B), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium good, moat fair, health weak, red flags weak, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 76% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 1,929 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 9.2M shares a day on a market cap of $841M, with a beta of 1.25 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 21% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 2/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 4.6 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 55 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $841M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 21% above fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 76% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 5.1/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 2/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 55/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 346 contracts a day, 1,929 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.25, $841M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AESI in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. by market cap within the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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| TTI TETRA Technologies, Inc. | 6.18 | 2.10 | -194% | 34Weak | $917M |
| ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp. | 3.97 | 8.55 | +54% | 28Weak | $723M |
| HMH HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock | 15.40 | 131.05 | +88% | 31No options | $688M |
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| WBI WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC | 26.04 | 13.85 | -88% | 31Weak | $1.2B |
| RES RPC, Inc. | 5.90 | 5.94 | +1% | 34Weak | $1.3B |
| OIS Oil States International, Inc. | 8.53 | 8.37 | -2% | 27Weak | $510M |
| XPRO Expro Group Holdings N.V. | 13.86 | 8.55 | -62% | 26Weak | $1.6B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AESI
Is AESI undervalued right now?
No: at 6.73 the stock trades 21% above the GLS average fair value of 5.56 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of AESI and what does it mean?
AESI scores 21 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AESI?
5.56 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AESI in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does AESI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 18 listed contracts with 1,929 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 76% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.