Stock fact sheet · data as of
Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Defensive
Is ALRS undervalued?
At 30.71 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ALRS trades 31% over the GLS average fair value of 23.47, with 2 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 3.19 while 10 Cap gives 79.64. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ALRS under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for ALRS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 5.65 | -82% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 23.74 | -23% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 17.60 | -43% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 4.36 | -86% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 3.19 | -90% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 79.64 | +159% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 52.27 | +70% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 12.65 | -59% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 12.12 | -61% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -183.58 | -698% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 37.00 | +20% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - ALRS passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.7%, ROE 3.1%, ROA 0.3% - with debt at 0.78 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 13.0%.
The dividend yield is 2.80% at a payout ratio of 76%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Retirement and Benefit Services 59%, Wealth Management 26%, Mortgage Banking 11% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 8/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.1 / 10 | ROE | 3.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.78 | ROA | 0.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 13.0% | Payout ratio | 76% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 8 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 46: Weak
ALRS scores 46 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 8/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 44% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 250 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 113k shares a day on a market cap of $766M, with a beta of 0.70 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -31% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 44% | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 113k shares/day, $766M cap, beta 0.70 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Alerus Financial Corporation reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Alerus Financial Corporation by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGC Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation | 42.84 | 67.00 | +36% | 81Prime | $759M |
| SMBC Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. | 68.87 | 95.22 | +28% | 79Good | $758M |
| FISI Financial Institutions, Inc. | 39.27 | 41.19 | +5% | 61Fair | $774M |
| HTB HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 46.49 | 95.43 | +51% | 81Prime | $776M |
| RCBC River City Bank | 53.59 | 99.75 | +46% | 39No options | $777M |
| SHBI Shore Bancshares, Inc. | 22.32 | 27.93 | +20% | 75Good | $745M |
| SPFI South Plains Financial, Inc. | 42.54 | 48.31 | +12% | 72Good | $801M |
| IBCP Independent Bank Corporation | 35.29 | 35.60 | +1% | 69Good | $727M |
| ORRF Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. | 41.49 | 81.71 | +49% | 73Good | $816M |
| HBIA Hills Bancorporation | 47.00 | 20.26 | -132% | 37No options | $820M |
| CUBB Customers Bancorp, Inc 5.375% S | 20.91 | 246.77 | +92% | 39No options | $714M |
| VBNK VersaBank | 21.88 | 32.84 | +33% | 70Good | $709M |
⚖ Compare ALRS with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ALRS
Is ALRS undervalued right now?
No: at 30.71 the stock trades 31% above the GLS average fair value of 23.47 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ALRS and what does it mean?
ALRS scores 46 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ALRS?
23.47 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Alerus Financial Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ALRS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 88 listed contracts with 250 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 44% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.