Stock fact sheet · data as of
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · High Growth
Is ARQT undervalued?
At 29.10 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ARQT trades 273% over the GLS average fair value of 7.81, with 0 of 7 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 7 models disagree widely: EPV gives 2.43 while GLS Growth gives 13.38. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files ARQT under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for ARQT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 2.88 | -90% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 12.50 | -57% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 5.46 | -81% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 13.38 | -54% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 6.13 | -79% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 11.88 | -59% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 2.43 | -92% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 1.33 | -95% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 40.75 | +40% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health ARQT scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.8 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -8.2%, ROE -8.5%, ROA -3.7% - with debt at 0.03 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.1%.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product 98%, Other Revenue 2% (quarter Q4 FY2023).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | -8.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.8 / 10 | ROE | -8.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.03 | ROA | -3.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.1% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 54: Fair
ARQT scores 54 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 17/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 63% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 9,743 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.9M shares a day on a market cap of $3.7B, with a beta of 1.58 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -273% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.8/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 63% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 3.9M shares/day, $3.7B cap, beta 1.58 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Biotechnology
The 12 companies below are the closest to Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEGN Legend Biotech Corporation | 19.80 | - | - | 45Weak | $3.7B |
| TLX Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited | 10.65 | 3.55 | -200% | 25No options | $3.6B |
| RLAY Relay Therapeutics, Inc. | 17.06 | - | - | 45Weak | $3.7B |
| TNGX Tango Therapeutics, Inc. | 22.19 | - | - | 43Weak | $3.7B |
| AMLX Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 27.65 | 2.30 | -1102% | 42Weak | $3.5B |
| ACAD Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 19.71 | 67.06 | +71% | 80Prime | $3.4B |
| TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 72.29 | 31.76 | -128% | 42Weak | $3.4B |
| XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 33.90 | 2.44 | -1290% | 45Weak | $3.3B |
| ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | 25.58 | - | - | 45Weak | $4.1B |
| IDYA IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. | 33.85 | - | - | 45Weak | $3.3B |
| ABCL AbCellera Biologics Inc. | 12.68 | - | - | 45Weak | $4.1B |
| EWTX Edgewise Therapeutics, Inc. | 38.20 | 0.5004 | -7534% | 36Weak | $4.1B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ARQT
Is ARQT undervalued right now?
No: at 29.10 the stock trades 273% above the GLS average fair value of 7.81 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of ARQT and what does it mean?
ARQT scores 54 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ARQT?
7.81 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ARQT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 142 listed contracts with 9,743 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 63% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.