Stock fact sheet · data as of
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. (AVTX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is AVTX undervalued?
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. (AVTX) closed at 12.01 on 16 Oct 2026, 1118% above the GLS average fair value of 0.9861. 1 of the 1 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The average is built from just 1 models (DCF) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files AVTX under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for AVTX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 0.9861 | -92% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 1.34 | -89% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 44.71 | +272% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. scores only 2 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.0/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -91.6%, ROE -94.2%, ROA -67.2% - with debt at 0.03 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 2 / 9 | ROIC | -91.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.0 / 10 | ROE | -94.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.03 | ROA | -67.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -10.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 26: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 26 Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 4/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 7/20, Stability 13/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 114% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (7 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 39,649 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 937k shares a day on a market cap of $644M, with a beta of 0.79 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -1118% margin of safety | |
| Health | 4 / 20 | Piotroski 2/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.0/10 | |
| Premium | 7 / 20 | implied volatility 114% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 937k shares/day, $644M cap, beta 0.79 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Biotechnology
The 12 companies below are the closest to Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANL Adlai Nortye Ltd. | 12.09 | 0.4209 | -2773% | 23No options | $642M |
| DSGN Design Therapeutics, Inc. | 10.48 | 0.2574 | -3971% | 25Weak | $656M |
| AURA Aura Biosciences, Inc. | 6.34 | 0.6743 | -840% | 30Weak | $657M |
| CLYM Climb Bio, Inc. | 10.91 | 0.4867 | -2142% | 23Weak | $627M |
| NVCT Nuvectis Pharma, Inc. | 18.93 | 1.18 | -1506% | 24Weak | $618M |
| ATTO Attovia Therapeutics, Inc. | 14.78 | 0.9548 | -1448% | 21No options | $675M |
| GYRE Gyre Therapeutics, Inc. | 6.40 | - | - | 34Weak | $679M |
| WVE Wave Life Sciences Ltd. | 3.09 | 1.35 | -128% | 30Weak | $609M |
| CADL Candel Therapeutics, Inc. | 8.91 | 2.20 | -304% | 23Weak | $682M |
| MDXG MiMedx Group, Inc. | 4.68 | 2.75 | -70% | 53Fair | $682M |
| PHAR Pharming Group N.V. | 9.64 | 6.44 | -50% | 27No options | $682M |
| ZVRA Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. | 10.23 | 27.02 | +62% | 70Good | $607M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AVTX
Is AVTX undervalued right now?
No: at 12.01 the stock trades 1118% above the GLS average fair value of 0.9861 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AVTX and what does it mean?
AVTX scores 26 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AVTX?
0.9861 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AVTX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 116 listed contracts with 39,649 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 114% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.