Stock fact sheet · data as of
AXT, Inc. (AXTI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Semiconductors · United States · Blend
Is AXTI undervalued?
AXTI closed at 57.91 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 2.20. Only 0 of the 5 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 5 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.1938 while Graham Number gives 4.65. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files AXTI under Blend.
Nine valuation models for AXTI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 4.65 | -92% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 3.79 | -93% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 1.66 | -97% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.1938 | -100% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 0.7357 | -99% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 2.91 | -95% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 99.50 | +72% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: AXTI passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -6.3%, ROE -7.8%, ROA -4.9% - with debt at 0.24 times equity and negative free cash flow.
AXT, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Substrates 79%, Raw Materials and Other 21% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -6.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.7 / 10 | ROE | -7.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.24 | ROA | -4.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -0.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 32: Weak
AXTI scores 32 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 9/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 16/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 119% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (5 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 220,939 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 14.6M shares a day on a market cap of $2.9B, with a beta of 1.86 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -2528% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.7/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 119% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 14.6M shares/day, $2.9B cap, beta 1.86 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
AXT, Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Semiconductors
The 12 companies below are the closest to AXT, Inc. by market cap within the Semiconductors industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VECO Veeco Instruments Inc. | 45.82 | 14.11 | -225% | 43Weak | $2.8B |
| AMBA Ambarella, Inc. | 63.35 | 7.60 | -734% | 45Weak | $2.8B |
| IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation | 73.76 | 20.57 | -259% | 51Fair | $3.1B |
| COHU Cohu, Inc. | 54.90 | 13.81 | -298% | 42Weak | $2.6B |
| UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. | 56.79 | 1.40 | -3945% | 32Weak | $2.6B |
| POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | 44.78 | 14.94 | -200% | 49Weak | $2.5B |
| PENG Penguin Solutions, Inc. | 67.59 | 81.27 | +17% | 45Weak | $3.5B |
| ACLS Axcelis Technologies, Inc. | 115.11 | 62.51 | -84% | 44Weak | $3.6B |
| NVTS Navitas Semiconductor Corp | 9.23 | - | - | 42Weak | $2.4B |
| ACMR ACM Research, Inc. | 58.09 | 63.18 | +8% | 45Weak | $3.8B |
| IMOS ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES Inc. | 65.14 | 152.05 | +57% | 74Good | $2.3B |
| AEHR Aehr Test Systems | 69.21 | 4.38 | -1481% | 28Weak | $2.3B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AXTI
Is AXTI undervalued right now?
No: at 57.91 the stock trades 2528% above the GLS average fair value of 2.20 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AXTI and what does it mean?
AXTI scores 32 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AXTI?
2.20 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 5 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does AXT, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AXTI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 220,939 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 119% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.