Stock fact sheet · data as of
AXT, Inc. (AXTI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AXTI · Technology · Semiconductors · United States · Blend
Is AXTI undervalued?
AXTI closed at 47.54 on 5 Nov 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 12.08. Only 0 of the 5 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the "below fair value" Wheel Trade Filter keeps names like this under 70.
The 5 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 1.45 while Graham Growth gives 28.39. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for AXTI, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 16, growth score 12, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for AXTI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 12.64 | -73% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 28.39 | -40% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 12.41 | -74% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 1.45 | -97% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 5.52 | -88% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 2.25 | -95% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 101.67 | +114% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: AXTI passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.1 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -6.3%, ROE -7.8%, ROA -4.9% - with debt at 0.24 times equity and negative free cash flow.
AXT, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Substrates 79%, Raw Materials and Other 21% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -6.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.1 / 10 | ROE | -7.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.24 | ROA | -4.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -0.6% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 23: Weak
AXTI scores 23 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 293% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 107% (over 80%), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium weak, moat weak, health fair, red flags strong, option trading strong, stability weak. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 107%, above the 80% ceiling of the Wheel Trade Filter on premium. The premium looks generous, but moves of that size can blow through any strike. The option chain is deep: 105,217 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 14.7M shares a day on a market cap of $3.1B, with a beta of 2.01 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that weak.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 293% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | implied volatility 107% (over 80%) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 293% above fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | implied volatility 107% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 2.1/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 90/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 22,992 contracts a day, 105,217 open interest | |
| Stability | Weak | beta 2.01, $3.1B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AXTI in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Semiconductors
The 12 companies below are the closest to AXT, Inc. by market cap within the Semiconductors industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation | 70.11 | 26.55 | -164% | 34Weak | $3.0B |
| ACMR ACM Research, Inc. | 44.43 | 54.41 | +18% | 31Weak | $2.9B |
| ACLS Axcelis Technologies, Inc. | 92.14 | 62.62 | -47% | 28Weak | $2.8B |
| KLIC Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. | 68.44 | 21.71 | -215% | 33Weak | $3.6B |
| AMBA Ambarella, Inc. | 60.92 | 7.60 | -702% | 24Weak | $2.7B |
| DIOD Diodes Incorporated | 79.46 | 48.35 | -64% | 33Weak | $3.7B |
| POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | 46.80 | 20.64 | -127% | 35Weak | $2.6B |
| PENG Penguin Solutions, Inc. | 48.35 | 81.39 | +41% | 37Weak | $2.5B |
| NVTS Navitas Semiconductor Corp | 9.33 | - | - | 20Weak | $2.4B |
| OUST Ouster, Inc. | 33.54 | - | - | 20Weak | $2.4B |
| VECO Veeco Instruments Inc. | 36.00 | 17.03 | -111% | 25Weak | $2.2B |
| NLST Netlist, Inc. | 5.99 | 0.0304 | -19591% | 14No options | $2.2B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AXTI
Is AXTI undervalued right now?
No: at 47.54 the stock trades 293% above the GLS average fair value of 12.08 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AXTI and what does it mean?
AXTI scores 23 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 3, 4, 7. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AXTI?
12.08 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 5 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does AXT, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AXTI in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does AXTI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 446 listed contracts with 105,217 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 107% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.