Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is BAER undervalued?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) closed at 0.5111 on 16 Oct 2026. None of the nine GLS valuation models produced a positive value for the stock - the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -0.22, it pays no dividend and its debts exceed what its assets would fetch - so there is no GLS average fair value and no margin of safety to report. The quality, option and event numbers below still apply; the Quote page's Wall Street View shows what analysts expect instead.

The nightly engine files BAER under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for BAER

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: BAER passes 1 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.3%, ROE 6.4%, ROA 1.3% - with debt at 3.79 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 3.79 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Reportable 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 30 Sep 2026.

Wheel Score 29: No options

BAER has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business; the Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options" (29 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.

Volume runs at 745k shares a day on a market cap of $30M, with a beta of 0.36 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 11 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Security & Protection Services

The 12 companies below are the closest to Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock by market cap within the Security & Protection Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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