Stock fact sheet · data as of
Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. (BDTX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is BDTX undervalued?
Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. (BDTX) closed at 1.74 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 1 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 11.06, which puts the price 84% below it. 1 of the 1 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DCF); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files BDTX under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for BDTX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 11.06 | +536% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 1.77 | +2% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 11.83 | +580% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: BDTX passes 1 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 17.1%, ROE 19.9%, ROA 15.6% - with debt at 0.17 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Reportable 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 18 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 1 / 9 | ROIC | 17.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.2 / 10 | ROE | 19.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.17 | ROA | 15.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -32.1% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 42: Weak
BDTX scores 42 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 25/25, Health 2/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 5/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 184%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is 2,554 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 614k shares a day on a market cap of $100M, with a beta of 3.33 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 5 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 84% margin of safety | |
| Health | 2 / 20 | Piotroski 1/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.2/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 184% | |
| Stability | 5 / 20 | 614k shares/day, $100M cap, beta 3.33 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026, 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Biotechnology
The 12 companies below are the closest to Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIST Milestone Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 0.7945 | 0.1538 | -417% | 27Weak | $99M |
| CBUS Cibus, Inc. | 1.29 | - | - | 29Weak | $99M |
| PLYX Polaryx Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock | 1.97 | 0.0993 | -1885% | 17No options | $98M |
| PYPD PolyPid Ltd. | 4.83 | 0.1249 | -3766% | 18Weak | $98M |
| UNCY Unicycive Therapeutics, Inc. | 3.70 | 1.81 | -105% | 21Weak | $101M |
| COYA Coya Therapeutics, Inc. | 4.34 | 4.59 | +5% | 38Weak | $102M |
| NRXS NeurAxis, Inc. | 7.74 | - | - | 45Weak | $97M |
| IMUX Immunic, Inc. | 7.10 | 0.6047 | -1074% | 18Weak | $97M |
| ATRA Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. | 9.65 | - | - | 25No options | $97M |
| ANIX Anixa Biosciences, Inc. | 2.78 | 0.0273 | -10072% | 19Weak | $97M |
| ICCC ImmuCell Corporation | 10.56 | 4.35 | -143% | 26No options | $96M |
| VANI Vivani Medical, Inc. | 1.16 | - | - | 23Weak | $105M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BDTX
Is BDTX undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 1.74 the stock is 84% below the average fair value of 11.06 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of BDTX and what does it mean?
BDTX scores 42 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BDTX?
11.06 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026, 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BDTX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 98 listed contracts with 2,554 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 184% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.