Stock fact sheet · data as of
Burford Capital Limited (BUR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol BUR · Financial Services · Asset Management · Guernsey · Speculative
Is BUR undervalued?
Burford Capital Limited (BUR) closed at 4.16 on 5 Nov 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 4.19 (0.7% below fair value). 1 of the 2 models that produced a number sit above the price, 1 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The average is built from just 2 models (DCF, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files BUR under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for BUR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 6.54 | +57% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 1.84 | -56% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -13.01 | -413% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 5.00 | +20% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Burford Capital Limited scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. On durability BUR scores 6.6/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.4%, ROE 2.6%, ROA 0.9% - with debt at 0.88 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 3.00% at a payout ratio of -1%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Asset Management 50%, Management Fee Income 41%, Performance Fee Income 10% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 21 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.6 / 10 | ROE | 2.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.88 | ROA | 0.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -21.0% | Payout ratio | -1% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 17: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 17 Burford Capital Limited sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 3/9 (under 6); and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 35 (under 60); and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 110% (over 80%); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $914M (under $1.0B); and filter 9, not a penny stock - price 4.16 (under $5); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 110%, above the 80% ceiling of the Wheel Trade Filter on premium. The premium looks generous, but moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is 10,937 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 4.5M shares a day on a market cap of $914M, with a beta of 1.12; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 3/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 35 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | implied volatility 110% (over 80%) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $914M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Fails | price 4.16 (under $5) |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 1% below fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | implied volatility 110% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.6/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 35/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 163 contracts a day, 10,937 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.12, $914M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for BUR in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to Burford Capital Limited by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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| ABINX American Century Balanced Fund | 22.16 | 5.60 | -296% | 10No options | $898M |
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| BBDC Barings BDC, Inc. | 8.91 | 37.27 | +76% | 50Fair | $933M |
| ARBFX The Arbitrage Fund | 13.96 | 4.97 | -181% | 11No options | $893M |
| RNP Cohen & Steers REIT and Preferred Income Fund, Inc. | 19.49 | 35.76 | +45% | 25No options | $936M |
| BOSOX Boston Trust Walden Small Cap Fund | 19.60 | 10.76 | -82% | 13No options | $940M |
⚖ Compare BUR with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BUR
Is BUR undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 4.16 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 4.19 (0.7% below fair value, data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of BUR and what does it mean?
BUR scores 17 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for BUR?
4.19 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Burford Capital Limited report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for BUR in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does BUR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 12 listed contracts with 10,937 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 110% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.