Stock fact sheet · data as of
Burford Capital Limited (BUR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Asset Management · Guernsey · Speculative / Distressed
Is BUR undervalued?
Burford Capital Limited (BUR) closed at 3.29 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 2 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 4.97, which puts the price 34% below it. 1 of the 2 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The average is built from just 2 models (DCF, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files BUR under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for BUR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 8.10 | +146% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 1.84 | -44% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -13.01 | -496% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 5.00 | +52% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Burford Capital Limited scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.8/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.4%, ROE 2.6%, ROA 0.9% - with debt at 0.88 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 3.80% at a payout ratio of -1%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Asset Management 50%, Management Fee Income 41%, Performance Fee Income 10% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 21 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.8 / 10 | ROE | 2.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.88 | ROA | 0.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -14.5% | Payout ratio | -1% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 Burford Capital Limited sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 7/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 7/20, Stability 15/20 - show where: Moat (3/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 110% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (7 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 49,288 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.4M shares a day on a market cap of $722M, with a beta of 1.05; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 34% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.8/10 | |
| Premium | 7 / 20 | implied volatility 110% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 2.4M shares/day, $722M cap, beta 1.05 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
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The 12 companies below are the closest to Burford Capital Limited by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BUR
Is BUR undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 3.29 the stock is 34% below the average fair value of 4.97 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of BUR and what does it mean?
BUR scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BUR?
4.97 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Burford Capital Limited report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BUR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 86 listed contracts with 49,288 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 110% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.