Corpay, Inc. (CPAY): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is CPAY undervalued?

Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) closed at 406.20 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 501.19, so the price sits 19% below it. 5 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.

There is a wide gap between Graham Number (145.48) and Payback Time (840.90). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files CPAY under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for CPAY

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Corpay, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability CPAY scores 6.6/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.6%, ROE 27.5%, ROA 4.1% - with debt at 2.60 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.1%. Debt of 2.60 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

Corpay, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Payments 46%, Corporate Payments 44%, Lodging 10% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 80: Prime

With a Wheel Score of 80, Corpay, Inc. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 20/25, Health 13/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 18/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.

Implied volatility is 33% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (18 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 7,053 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 912k shares a day on a market cap of $26.7B, with a beta of 0.89; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 18 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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