Stock fact sheet · data as of
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Trucking · United States · Blend
Is CVLG undervalued?
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) closed at 30.81 on 16 Oct 2026, 146% above the GLS average fair value of 12.55. 8 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.4412 while 10 Cap gives 54.80. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files CVLG under Blend.
Nine valuation models for CVLG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 24.82 | -19% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 7.46 | -76% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 8.62 | -72% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 3.77 | -88% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.4412 | -99% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 54.80 | +78% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 7.22 | -77% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 4.12 | -87% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 1.67 | -95% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -16.11 | -152% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 54.67 | +77% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health CVLG scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.0%, ROE 1.8%, ROA 0.7% - with debt at 0.84 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.0%.
The dividend yield is 0.91% with a payout ratio of 186% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Cargo and Freight 89%, Fuel Surcharge 12% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 1.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.9 / 10 | ROE | 1.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.84 | ROA | 0.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.0% | Payout ratio | 186% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 48: Weak
CVLG scores 48 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 8/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 49% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,246 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 143k shares a day on a market cap of $782M, with a beta of 1.40 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -146% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.9/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 49% | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 143k shares/day, $782M cap, beta 1.40 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Trucking
The 12 companies below are the closest to Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. by market cap within the Trucking industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTLD Heartland Express, Inc. | 11.13 | 3.08 | -261% | 41Weak | $861M |
| MRTN Marten Transport, Ltd. | 12.89 | 4.36 | -196% | 49Weak | $1.1B |
| ULH Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. | 16.82 | 29.48 | +43% | 39No options | $444M |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | 32.50 | 22.71 | -43% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| PAMT Pamt Corp. | 11.57 | 14.73 | +21% | 36No options | $242M |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | 133.07 | 43.75 | -204% | 55Fair | $3.0B |
| NXTN Next10, Inc. | 0.7000 | - | - | 21No options | $139M |
| RXO RXO, Inc. | 28.69 | - | - | 45Weak | $4.7B |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | 31.21 | 16.80 | -86% | 60Fair | $5.5B |
| RRTS Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. | 2.50 | 2.66 | +6% | 19No options | $98M |
| ETS Elite Express Holding Inc. | 1.87 | - | - | 28No options | $83M |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | 334.69 | 197.06 | -70% | 57Fair | $8.9B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about CVLG
Is CVLG undervalued right now?
No: at 30.81 the stock trades 146% above the GLS average fair value of 12.55 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of CVLG and what does it mean?
CVLG scores 48 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for CVLG?
12.55 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does CVLG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 102 listed contracts with 2,246 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 49% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.