Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is EVH undervalued?

At 4.87 (close of 16 Oct 2026), EVH trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 4.93 (1.2% below fair value). 1 models produced a value and they split 1 above the price to 0 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.

The average is built from just 1 models (10 Cap) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.

The nightly engine files EVH under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for EVH

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Evolent Health, Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 0.5/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -38.0%, ROE -128.7%, ROA -28.1% - with debt at 2.38 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.1%. Debt of 2.38 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

Evolent Health, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Reportable 100% (quarter Q4 FY2025).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

With a Wheel Score of 45 Evolent Health, Inc. sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 13/25, Health 11/20, Moat 1/15, Premium 15/20, Stability 15/20 - show where: Moat (1/15) scores lowest.

Implied volatility is 79% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (15 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 21,473 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 3.8M shares a day on a market cap of $548M, with a beta of 0.84; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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