Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ferguson plc (FERG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Industrial - Distribution · United States · Blend
Is FERG undervalued?
At 228.76 (close of 16 Oct 2026), FERG trades 105% over the GLS average fair value of 111.72, with 1 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 9 models disagree widely: DCF gives 13.64 while Graham Growth gives 276.18. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files FERG under Blend.
Nine valuation models for FERG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 13.64 | -94% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 87.08 | -62% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 276.18 | +21% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 96.49 | -58% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 30.81 | -87% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 206.86 | -10% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 125.06 | -45% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 52.38 | -77% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 116.96 | -49% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -10.73 | -105% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 282.90 | +24% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - FERG passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.3%, ROE 10.7%, ROA 3.5% - with debt at 1.03 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.9%.
The dividend yield is 1.56% at a payout ratio of 33%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from United States 100% (quarter Q4 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 10 Aug 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 5.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.7 / 10 | ROE | 10.7% |
| Debt / equity | 1.03 | ROA | 3.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.9% | Payout ratio | 33% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 55: Fair
FERG scores 55 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 41% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 8,615 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.9M shares a day on a market cap of $44.3B, with a beta of 1.12; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -105% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 41% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 1.9M shares/day, $44.3B cap, beta 1.12 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Industrial - Distribution
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ferguson plc by market cap within the Industrial - Distribution industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST Fastenal Company | 50.38 | 18.53 | -172% | 58Fair | $57.8B |
| GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | 1,331.17 | 587.82 | -126% | 56Fair | $62.7B |
| WCC WESCO International, Inc. | 351.49 | 278.53 | -26% | 62Fair | $17.1B |
| AIT Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | 333.83 | 176.96 | -89% | 62Fair | $12.3B |
| WSO Watsco, Inc. | 295.09 | 251.91 | -17% | 62Fair | $12.2B |
| QXO QXO, Inc. | 10.33 | 23.54 | +56% | 45Weak | $10.7B |
| CNM Core & Main, Inc. | 41.79 | 46.97 | +11% | 80Prime | $7.7B |
| MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | 130.70 | 62.37 | -110% | 59Fair | $7.3B |
| POOL Pool Corporation | 158.12 | 181.01 | +13% | 75Good | $5.7B |
| XMTR Xometry, Inc. | 95.15 | - | - | 45Weak | $5.3B |
| SITE SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | 89.36 | 90.59 | +1% | 72Good | $3.9B |
| DXPE DXP Enterprises, Inc. | 177.73 | 199.81 | +11% | 73Good | $2.8B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about FERG
Is FERG undervalued right now?
No: at 228.76 the stock trades 105% above the GLS average fair value of 111.72 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of FERG and what does it mean?
FERG scores 55 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for FERG?
111.72 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ferguson plc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does FERG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 330 listed contracts with 8,615 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 41% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.