Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is FOUR undervalued?

Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) closed at 44.77 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 72.09, which puts the price 38% below it. 4 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 4.25 while DCF gives 254.77. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

Ranked against every other company we cover, FOUR is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 37, growth score 84, out of 100).

Nine valuation models for FOUR

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - FOUR passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.1 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.0%, ROE 8.3%, ROA 1.4% - with debt at 3.20 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.0%. Debt of 3.20 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

The dividend yield is 0.64% with a payout ratio of 51% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Payments Based Revenue 90%, Subscription And Other Revenues 10% (quarter Q1 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 43: Weak

FOUR scores 43 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 7.2 years to repay its debt (over 3), and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium good, moat fair, health fair, red flags fair, option trading good, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 77% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 28,799 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 4.0M shares a day on a market cap of $4.7B, with a beta of 1.48 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Shift4 Payments, Inc. reports earnings on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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