Stock fact sheet · data as of
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Asset Management - Cryptocurrency · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is GBTC undervalued?
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) closed at 63.53 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 1 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 106.84, which puts the price 41% below it. 1 of the 1 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files GBTC under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for GBTC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 106.84 | +68% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.0000 | -100% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: GBTC passes 2 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.0%, ROE 0.0%, ROA 0.0% - with debt at 0.00 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.0%.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 2 / 9 | ROIC | 0.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 0.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.00 | ROA | 0.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
GBTC scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 4/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 16/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 52,501 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 1.3M shares a day on a market cap of $44.0B, with a beta of 2.19 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 41% margin of safety | |
| Health | 4 / 20 | Piotroski 2/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 39% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 1.3M shares/day, $44.0B cap, beta 2.19 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for GBTC in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management - Cryptocurrency
The 8 companies below are the closest to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF by market cap within the Asset Management - Cryptocurrency industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETHE Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF | 19.47 | 124.16 | +84% | 45Weak | $2.3B |
| FWDI Forward Industries, Inc. | 7.15 | 0.3723 | -1821% | 34Weak | $545M |
| GDLC Grayscale CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF | 37.16 | 212.02 | +82% | 32No options | $506M |
| BCHG Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust | 2.13 | - | - | 15No options | $68M |
| SDEV Stablecoin Development Corp. | 1.02 | 350.83 | +100% | 39No options | $52M |
| HYPD Hyperion DeFi, Inc. | 3.15 | 4.95 | +36% | 39No options | $48M |
| BLOX Nicholas Crypto Income ETF | 12.24 | 54.58 | +78% | 45Weak | $14M |
| BCOR Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF | 25.68 | 3.44 | -647% | 23No options | $3M |
⚖ Compare GBTC with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GBTC
Is GBTC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 63.53 the stock is 41% below the average fair value of 106.84 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of GBTC and what does it mean?
GBTC scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for GBTC?
106.84 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for GBTC in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does GBTC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 950 listed contracts with 52,501 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.