Stock fact sheet · data as of
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol GBTC · Financial Services · Asset Management - Cryptocurrency · United States · Fund / Note
Is GBTC undervalued?
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) closed at 61.78 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 1 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 106.84, which puts the price 42% below it. 1 of the 1 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
GBTC looks like a fund, note or preferred share rather than an operating company, so the nightly engine files it under Fund / Note: the valuation models are not built for it, and its Wheel Score is capped at 45.
Nine valuation models for GBTC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 106.84 | +73% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.0000 | -100% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: GBTC passes 2 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. There is no GLS Moat score for GBTC: funds, notes and second share lines get none, and so does a company with fewer than two years of accounts on file. The Moat part of the Wheel Score is zero.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.0%, ROE 0.0%, ROA 0.0% - with debt at 0.00 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.2%.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 2 / 9 | ROIC | 0.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | - / 10 | ROE | 0.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.00 | ROA | 0.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
GBTC scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - a fund or note, not a company; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 2/9 (under 6), and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium strong, moat weak, health weak, red flags strong, option trading good, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 38% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 27,393 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 2.5M shares a day on a market cap of $42.8B, with a beta of 2.04 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | a fund or note, not a company |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 2/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 42% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 38% | |
| Moat | Weak | no moat score | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 2/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 100/100 | |
| Option trading | Good | 2,431 contracts a day, 27,393 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 2.04, $42.8B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for GBTC in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management - Cryptocurrency
The 9 companies below are the closest to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF by market cap within the Asset Management - Cryptocurrency industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETHE Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF | 19.37 | 124.34 | +84% | 41Weak | $2.2B |
| SATS Strive, Inc. 15.00% Series A Perpetual SATS Preferred Stock | 95.01 | - | - | 33Weak | $665M |
| GDLC Grayscale CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF | 36.09 | 212.02 | +83% | 20No options | $491M |
| FWDI Forward Industries, Inc. | 6.43 | 0.3738 | -1620% | 14Weak | $491M |
| BCHG Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust | 2.10 | - | - | 5No options | $67M |
| SDEV Stablecoin Development Corp. | 0.9670 | 54.28 | +98% | 27No options | $50M |
| HYPD Hyperion DeFi, Inc. | 3.07 | 4.95 | +38% | 26No options | $47M |
| BLOX Nicholas Crypto Income ETF | 10.53 | 52.43 | +80% | 35Weak | $12M |
| BCOR Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF | 23.86 | 3.44 | -595% | 13No options | $2M |
⚖ Compare GBTC with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GBTC
Is GBTC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 61.78 the stock is 42% below the average fair value of 106.84 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of GBTC and what does it mean?
GBTC scores 45 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 4. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for GBTC?
106.84 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for GBTC in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does GBTC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 564 listed contracts with 27,393 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 38% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.