Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ferroglobe PLC (GSM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol GSM · Basic Materials · Industrial Materials · United Kingdom · Speculative
Is GSM undervalued?
Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) closed at 2.93 on 5 Nov 2026, 80% above the GLS average fair value of 1.63. 2 of the 3 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
The average is built from just 3 models (DCF, 10 Cap, DDM) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files GSM under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for GSM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 3.83 | +31% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 0.1852 | -94% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 0.8681 | -70% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.0270 | -99% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Ferroglobe PLC scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 2.4/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -17.3%, ROE -24.7%, ROA -12.0% - with debt at 0.42 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.01% at a payout ratio of -27%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Silicon Metal Product Line 32%, Manganese Alloys Product Line 27%, Ferrosilicon Product Line 21% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -17.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.4 / 10 | ROE | -24.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.42 | ROA | -12.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -3.4% | Payout ratio | -27% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 17: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 17 Ferroglobe PLC sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 80% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 153% (over 80%); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $548M (under $1.0B); and filter 9, not a penny stock - price 2.93 (under $5); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 153%, above the 80% ceiling of the Wheel Trade Filter on premium. The premium looks generous, but moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is 18,424 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 4.3M shares a day on a market cap of $548M, with a beta of 1.06; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 80% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | implied volatility 153% (over 80%) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $548M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Fails | price 2.93 (under $5) |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 80% above fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | implied volatility 153% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 2.4/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 70/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 1,430 contracts a day, 18,424 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.06, $548M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for GSM in the nightly calendar. The next ex-dividend date is 22 Dec 2026 (0.0150 per share).
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Industrial Materials
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ferroglobe PLC by market cap within the Industrial Materials industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGML Sigma Lithium Corporation | 5.62 | 6.93 | +19% | 27Weak | $633M |
| UAMY United States Antimony Corporation | 2.98 | - | - | 15Weak | $446M |
| LAC Lithium Americas Corp. | 1.95 | - | - | 23Weak | $435M |
| LAR Lithium Argentina AG | 4.20 | - | - | 16Weak | $689M |
| NB NioCorp Developments Ltd. | 2.97 | 0.3511 | -746% | 23Weak | $433M |
| TMQ Trilogy Metals Inc. | 2.19 | 0.3096 | -607% | 15Weak | $397M |
| NAK Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. | 0.6767 | 0.0662 | -922% | 11Weak | $380M |
| WRN Western Copper and Gold Corporation | 1.60 | 0.0288 | -5462% | 9No options | $362M |
| SLI Standard Lithium Ltd. | 1.44 | 0.4975 | -189% | 16Weak | $355M |
| CRML Critical Metals Corp. | 6.37 | 0.1400 | -4449% | 20Weak | $936M |
| CMP Compass Minerals International, Inc. | 23.26 | 23.90 | +3% | 30Weak | $976M |
| ANVI Anvi Global Holdings, Inc. | 2.46 | - | - | 9No options | $295M |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GSM
Is GSM undervalued right now?
No: at 2.93 the stock trades 80% above the GLS average fair value of 1.63 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of GSM and what does it mean?
GSM scores 17 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for GSM?
1.63 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 3 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ferroglobe PLC report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for GSM in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does GSM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 18 listed contracts with 18,424 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 153% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.