Stock fact sheet · data as of
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Communication Equipment · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is LITE undervalued?
LITE closed at 869.54 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 100.02. Only 0 of the 1 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files LITE under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for LITE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 100.02 | -88% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 16.54 | -98% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 1,112.15 | +28% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - LITE passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.2 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -109.8%, ROE -149.3%, ROA -94.9% - with debt at 0.36 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.7%.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Systems 100% (quarter Q4 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 4/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | -109.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.2 / 10 | ROE | -149.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.36 | ROA | -94.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 4 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
LITE scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 15/20, Stability 19/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 81% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (15 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 103,535 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 7.6M shares a day on a market cap of $78.8B, with a beta of 1.54 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -769% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.2/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 81% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 7.6M shares/day, $78.8B cap, beta 1.54 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Communication Equipment
The 12 companies below are the closest to Lumentum Holdings Inc. by market cap within the Communication Equipment industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 456.27 | 329.24 | -39% | 62Fair | $75.5B |
| NOK Nokia Oyj | 9.57 | 3.58 | -168% | 61Fair | $51.7B |
| CIEN Ciena Corporation | 356.52 | 138.15 | -158% | 63Fair | $50.6B |
| UI Ubiquiti Inc. | 605.51 | 354.32 | -71% | 33No options | $36.7B |
| ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | 10.71 | 41.17 | +74% | 86Prime | $34.8B |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation | 376.88 | 227.01 | -66% | 60Fair | $17.8B |
| CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | 109.85 | 45.16 | -143% | 67Good | $433.1B |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | 38.55 | 7.64 | -405% | 45Weak | $9.5B |
| VSAT Viasat, Inc. | 61.73 | 65.02 | +5% | 45Weak | $8.5B |
| AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 83.73 | - | - | 43Weak | $7.1B |
| BDC Belden Inc. | 104.22 | 100.11 | -4% | 72Good | $4.1B |
| ONDS Ondas Holdings Inc. | 6.35 | 9.04 | +30% | 45Weak | $3.7B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about LITE
Is LITE undervalued right now?
No: at 869.54 the stock trades 769% above the GLS average fair value of 100.02 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of LITE and what does it mean?
LITE scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for LITE?
100.02 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Lumentum Holdings Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does LITE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 103,535 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 81% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.