Stock fact sheet · data as of
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is MAIN undervalued?
At 54.27 (close of 16 Oct 2026), MAIN trades 42% below the GLS average fair value of 94.16. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 8 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Main Street Capital Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (10.12) and GLS Growth (247.17). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MAIN under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for MAIN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 121.32 | +124% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 61.66 | +14% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 60.57 | +12% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 10.12 | -81% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 247.17 | +355% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 84.60 | +56% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 143.77 | +165% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 63.71 | +17% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 54.53 | +0% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -23.30 | -143% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 58.00 | +7% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Main Street Capital Corporation scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 3.4/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 9.1%, ROE 16.5%, ROA 8.6% - with debt at 0.82 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.0%.
The dividend yield is high at 7.98% (payout ratio 77%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 3/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | 9.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 16.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.82 | ROA | 8.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.0% | Payout ratio | 77% |
| Institutions | 3 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 Main Street Capital Corporation sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 7/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 6/20, Stability 15/20 - show where: Premium (6/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 21% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (6 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 22,410 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 565k shares a day on a market cap of $5.1B, with a beta of 0.75 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 42% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 6 / 20 | implied volatility 21% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 565k shares/day, $5.1B cap, beta 0.75 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium. The shares go ex-dividend on 6 Nov 2026 (0.2650 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to Main Street Capital Corporation by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FELTX Fidelity Advisor Semiconductors Fund | 153.71 | 1,989.48 | +92% | 39No options | $5.1B |
| OBDC Blue Owl Capital Corporation | 10.35 | 27.81 | +63% | 88Prime | $5.1B |
| JANIX Janus Henderson Triton Fund Class D | 28.28 | 45.31 | +38% | 39No options | $5.3B |
| JSEAX JPMorgan International Equity A | 23.39 | 20.34 | -15% | 30No options | $4.9B |
| STEP StepStone Group Inc. | 41.33 | 22.11 | -87% | 45Weak | $5.3B |
| HASI HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. | 36.80 | 27.99 | -31% | 56Fair | $4.7B |
| MGR Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 18.63 | 210.70 | +91% | 39No options | $5.5B |
| HLNE Hamilton Lane Incorporated | 83.50 | 158.24 | +47% | 89Prime | $4.6B |
| CGABL The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 | 15.60 | 15.57 | -0% | 36No options | $5.6B |
| BXSL Blackstone Secured Lending Fund | 24.19 | 39.65 | +39% | 72Good | $5.6B |
| FIVLX Fidelity International Value Fund | 15.02 | 5.61 | -168% | 25No options | $4.5B |
| EADOX Eaton Vance Emerging Markets Debt Opportunities - Class A | 8.62 | 7.35 | -17% | 29No options | $5.7B |
⚖ Compare MAIN with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MAIN
Is MAIN undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 54.27 the stock is 42% below the average fair value of 94.16 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of MAIN and what does it mean?
MAIN scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MAIN?
94.16 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Main Street Capital Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MAIN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 156 listed contracts with 22,410 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 21% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.