Mattel, Inc. (MAT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is MAT undervalued?

At 17.32 (close of 16 Oct 2026), MAT trades 43% below the GLS average fair value of 30.59. That average comes from 8 models run on the latest filings, and 4 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Mattel, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.

The 8 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 12.00 while 10 Cap gives 50.55. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files MAT under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.

Nine valuation models for MAT

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health MAT scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.1%, ROE 17.8%, ROA 6.0% - with debt at 1.20 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 12.7%.

Mattel, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Rest of world 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 86: Prime

MAT scores 86 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (6/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (19/20).

Implied volatility is 51% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 305,205 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 7.2M shares a day on a market cap of $4.9B, with a beta of 0.70 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Mattel, Inc. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Leisure

The 12 companies below are the closest to Mattel, Inc. by market cap within the Leisure industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare MAT with 7 of them   All Consumer Cyclical stocks →