Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is MEDP undervalued?

Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) closed at 628.60 on 16 Oct 2026, 25% above the GLS average fair value of 504.82. Only 2 of the 8 models that produced a number value the shares above the current price. The margin of safety is negative, so the stock fails the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan; a premium of this size is common for companies whose growth the models are conservative about.

The 8 models disagree widely: Graham Number gives 77.38 while GLS Growth gives 1,062.94. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files MEDP under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for MEDP

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health MEDP scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 9.1 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 75.7%, ROE 98.3%, ROA 22.8% - with debt at 0.30 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.2%.

Medpace Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Metabolic 31%, Oncology 30%, Other 14% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 65: Good

MEDP scores 65 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 2/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (14/15), the option premium on offer (18/20) and how easily the stock trades (16/20). Value (2/25) is the part holding the score back.

Implied volatility is 68% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 4,694 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 392k shares a day on a market cap of $17.5B, with a beta of 1.18; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Medpace Holdings, Inc. reports earnings on 21 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Medical - Diagnostics & Research

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