Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is MNTK undervalued?

MNTK closed at 2.12 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 0.9430. Only 0 of the 5 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.

The 5 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.1620 while Graham Growth gives 1.76. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files MNTK under Blend.

Nine valuation models for MNTK

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: MNTK passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.8 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.4%, ROE 0.7%, ROA 0.4% - with debt at 0.52 times equity and negative free cash flow.

Montauk Renewables, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Renewable Natural Gas 91%, Renewable Electricity Generation 10% (quarter Q4 FY2023).

Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 38: Weak

MNTK scores 38 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 9/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 14/20, Stability 10/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 82% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (14 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 1,263 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 520k shares a day on a market cap of $302M, with a beta of 0.54 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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