Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is MOH undervalued?

MOH has a margin of safety of 47%: the stock closed at 212.50 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 398.47. 1 of the 2 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.

Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.

The nightly engine files MOH under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for MOH

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - MOH passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.2 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.9%, ROE 11.6%, ROA 3.0% - with debt at 0.97 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.4%.

Molina Healthcare, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Medicaid Solutions 78%, Medicare 15%, Marketplace 6% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

MOH scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 17/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 63% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 28,701 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 771k shares a day on a market cap of $11.1B, with a beta of 0.78 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Molina Healthcare, Inc. reports earnings on 21 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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