Movado Group, Inc. (MOV): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is MOV undervalued?

MOV closed at 33.17 on 16 Oct 2026, 20% below the GLS average fair value of 41.56 from 9 models (5 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 21 of the 25 Value points.

The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 5.28 while Graham Growth gives 86.19. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files MOV under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.

Nine valuation models for MOV

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health MOV scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.8 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.5%, ROE 5.2%, ROA 3.6% - with debt at 0.15 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 13.5%.

The dividend yield is high at 4.52% (payout ratio 78%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Company Stores 100% (quarter Q2 FY2027).

Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 69: Good

MOV scores 69 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 21/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (4/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (9/20). Moat (4/15) is the part holding the score back.

Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 1,122 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 189k shares a day on a market cap of $529M, with a beta of 0.90; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 24 Nov 2026 (before the open), 39 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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