Stock fact sheet · data as of
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is MRNA undervalued?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) closed at 236.50 on 16 Oct 2026. None of the nine GLS valuation models produced a positive value for the stock - the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -7.96 and it pays no dividend - so there is no GLS average fair value and no margin of safety to report. The quality, option and event numbers below still apply; the Quote page's Wall Street View shows what analysts expect instead.
The nightly engine files MRNA under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for MRNA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 7.15 | -97% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 117.40 | -50% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: MRNA passes 2 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 0.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -26.7%, ROE -32.6%, ROA -22.9% - with debt at 0.22 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Moderna, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product Sales 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 6/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 19 Aug 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 2 / 9 | ROIC | -26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.9 / 10 | ROE | -32.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.22 | ROA | -22.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -1.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 6 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
MRNA scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 13/25, Health 4/20, Moat 1/15, Premium 7/20, Stability 20/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 111% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (7 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 361,049 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 17.3M shares a day on a market cap of $94.4B, with a beta of 0.90; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 13 / 25 | 0% margin of safety | |
| Health | 4 / 20 | Piotroski 2/9 | |
| Moat | 1 / 15 | moat 0.9/10 | |
| Premium | 7 / 20 | implied volatility 111% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 17.3M shares/day, $94.4B cap, beta 0.90 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Biotechnology
The 12 companies below are the closest to Moderna, Inc. by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 778.36 | 672.97 | -16% | 68Good | $80.1B |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | 498.50 | 315.11 | -58% | 61Fair | $126.4B |
| ARGX argenx SE | 846.27 | 796.62 | -6% | 65Good | $52.3B |
| RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. | 193.52 | 0.8792 | -21911% | 42Weak | $41.5B |
| ONC BeOne Medicines AG | 374.08 | 200.58 | -86% | 54Fair | $40.0B |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 234.03 | 173.82 | -35% | 59Fair | $31.3B |
| ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd. | 33.62 | 2.89 | -1063% | 44Weak | $24.3B |
| GMAB Genmab A/S | 37.82 | 44.48 | +15% | 73Good | $23.3B |
| UTHR United Therapeutics Corporation | 540.03 | 872.54 | +38% | 87Prime | $23.2B |
| INCY Incyte Corporation | 113.27 | 202.62 | +44% | 88Prime | $23.0B |
| BNTX BioNTech SE | 90.20 | 49.55 | -82% | 45Weak | $22.6B |
| INSM Insmed Incorporated | 99.21 | - | - | 45Weak | $21.7B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MRNA
Is MRNA undervalued right now?
The GLS models could not value MRNA (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -7.96 and it pays no dividend), so there is no fair value or margin of safety to compare the price of 236.50 against.
What is the Wheel Score of MRNA and what does it mean?
MRNA scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MRNA?
None of the nine GLS models produced a positive value for MRNA (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -7.96 and it pays no dividend), so there is no GLS fair value tonight.
When does Moderna, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MRNA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 361,049 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 111% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.