Stock fact sheet · data as of
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol MSDL · Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · Fund / Note
Is MSDL undervalued?
MSDL has a margin of safety of 69%: the stock closed at 14.42 on 5 Nov 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 46.72. 6 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our scans treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 2.82 while DCF gives 173.71. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
MSDL looks like a fund, note or preferred share rather than an operating company, so the nightly engine files it under Fund / Note: the valuation models are not built for it, and its Wheel Score is capped at 45.
Nine valuation models for MSDL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 173.71 | +1105% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 17.56 | +22% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 11.37 | -21% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 2.82 | -80% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 43.16 | +199% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 67.04 | +365% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 69.78 | +384% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 27.22 | +89% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 7.83 | -46% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -24.54 | -270% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 15.00 | +4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health MSDL scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. There is no GLS Moat score for MSDL: funds, notes and second share lines get none, and so does a company with fewer than two years of accounts on file. The Moat part of the Wheel Score is zero.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.2%, ROE 7.0%, ROA 3.1% - with debt at 1.19 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 23.3%.
The dividend yield is high at 12.83% (payout ratio 282%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 6/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | - / 10 | ROE | 7.0% |
| Debt / equity | 1.19 | ROA | 3.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 23.3% | Payout ratio | 282% |
| Institutions | 6 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 48: Weak
MSDL scores 48 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - a fund or note, not a company, and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium strong, moat weak, health strong, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 37% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 8,607 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 580k shares a day on a market cap of $1.2B, with a beta of 0.66 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | a fund or note, not a company |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 69% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 37% | |
| Moat | Weak | no moat score | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 90/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 452 contracts a day, 8,607 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.66, $1.2B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund reports earnings on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OIIEX Optimum International Equity Fund Class I | 17.84 | 38.84 | +54% | 26No options | $1.2B |
| HQH Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 21.56 | 51.71 | +58% | 32No options | $1.2B |
| MPEGX Morgan Stanley Inst Discovery Portfolio;I | 24.71 | 4.62 | -435% | 11No options | $1.2B |
| MYI BlackRock MuniYield Quality Fund III, Inc. | 10.21 | 14.39 | +29% | 26No options | $1.2B |
| JFR Nuveen Floating Rate Income Fund | 7.31 | 7.97 | +8% | 18No options | $1.2B |
| GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust | 34.20 | 129.84 | +74% | 45Weak | $1.3B |
| FICDX Fidelity Canada Fund | 90.95 | 2,243.16 | +96% | 29No options | $1.2B |
| ACEVX American Century International Value Fund Investor Class | 12.80 | 13.20 | +3% | 13No options | $1.3B |
| MUC BlackRock MuniHoldings California Quality Fund, Inc. | 10.19 | 20.37 | +50% | 26No options | $1.3B |
| WBSNX William Blair Small Cap Growth Fund Class N | 31.34 | 19.62 | -60% | 11No options | $1.2B |
| CAM Alliance Bernstein - AB California Intermediate Municipal ETF | 24.66 | 23.15 | -7% | 12No options | $1.1B |
| DXYZ Destiny Tech100 Inc. | 26.93 | 226.48 | +88% | 44Weak | $1.3B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MSDL
Is MSDL undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 14.42 the stock is 69% below the average fair value of 46.72 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of MSDL and what does it mean?
MSDL scores 48 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 2. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for MSDL?
46.72 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 0 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MSDL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 66 listed contracts with 8,607 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 37% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.