Stock fact sheet · data as of
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol NBHC · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Blend
Is NBHC undervalued?
At 38.21 (close of 5 Nov 2026), NBHC trades 10% under the GLS average fair value of 42.62. 4 of the 9 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS scan; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (12.22) and 10 Cap (78.83). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for NBHC, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 45, growth score 31, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for NBHC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 54.72 | +43% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 31.78 | -17% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 70.21 | +84% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 30.68 | -20% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 12.22 | -68% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 78.83 | +106% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 72.85 | +91% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 18.69 | -51% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 13.64 | -64% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -170.55 | -546% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 44.00 | +15% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
National Bank Holdings Corporation scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability NBHC scores 6.1/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.5%, ROE 7.9%, ROA 1.1% - with debt at 0.05 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.2%.
The dividend yield is 3.32% at a payout ratio of 75%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Service charges and other fees 45%, Credit and Debit Card 39%, Other Non Interest income 16% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 7.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.1 / 10 | ROE | 7.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.05 | ROA | 1.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.2% | Payout ratio | 75% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 32: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 32 National Bank Holdings Corporation sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (264 open interest, 242 a day); and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6); and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 55 (under 60); Red Flags (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 32% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is thin - 264 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 558k shares a day on a market cap of $1.7B, with a beta of 0.82; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (264 open interest, 242 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 55 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 10% below fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 32% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.1/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 55/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 242 contracts a day, 264 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.82, $1.7B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 26 Jan 2027, 82 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to National Bank Holdings Corporation by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCRH QCR Holdings, Inc. | 103.80 | 313.04 | +67% | 46Weak | $1.7B |
| HOPE Hope Bancorp, Inc. | 13.44 | 20.71 | +35% | 51Fair | $1.7B |
| CNOB ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. | 33.13 | 71.68 | +54% | 44Weak | $1.7B |
| WTFCN Wintrust Financial Corporation | 25.51 | 267.84 | +90% | 26No options | $1.7B |
| CNOBP ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. | 25.50 | 65.50 | +61% | 33No options | $1.7B |
| TCBK TriCo Bancshares | 53.91 | 54.24 | +1% | 40Weak | $1.7B |
| BFC Bank First Corporation | 149.60 | 122.74 | -22% | 23No options | $1.7B |
| BY Byline Bancorp, Inc. | 39.05 | 35.32 | -11% | 38Weak | $1.7B |
| CASH Pathward Financial, Inc. | 79.01 | 238.24 | +67% | 82Good | $1.6B |
| FSUN FirstSun Capital Bancorp | 40.72 | 99.07 | +59% | 35No options | $1.7B |
| INTR Inter & Co, Inc. | 3.96 | 29.31 | +86% | 41Weak | $1.7B |
| LOB Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 35.15 | 86.43 | +59% | 47Weak | $1.6B |
⚖ Compare NBHC with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NBHC
Is NBHC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 38.21 the stock trades 10% below the average fair value of 42.62 (data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NBHC and what does it mean?
NBHC scores 32 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 4, 6. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for NBHC?
42.62 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does National Bank Holdings Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Jan 2027, 82 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NBHC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 72 listed contracts with 264 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 32% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.