Stock fact sheet · data as of
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Value
Is NBHC undervalued?
At 37.74 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NBHC trades 30% under the GLS average fair value of 53.84. 6 of the 9 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS screen; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (15.39) and Graham Growth (114.30). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NBHC under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for NBHC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 53.64 | +42% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 50.40 | +34% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 114.30 | +203% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 47.47 | +26% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 15.39 | -59% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 84.72 | +124% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 71.26 | +89% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 18.69 | -50% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 28.69 | -24% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -170.55 | -552% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 44.00 | +17% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
National Bank Holdings Corporation scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.5%, ROE 7.9%, ROA 1.1% - with debt at 0.05 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.6%.
The dividend yield is 3.37% at a payout ratio of 53%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Service charges and other fees 45%, Credit and Debit Card 39%, Other Non Interest income 16% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 7.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.6 / 10 | ROE | 7.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.05 | ROA | 1.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.6% | Payout ratio | 53% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 76: Good
With a Wheel Score of 76 - the Good band - National Bank Holdings Corporation clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 18/20, Stability 13/20; Moat (7/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 33% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (18 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 265 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 462k shares a day on a market cap of $1.7B, with a beta of 0.83; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 30% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.6/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 33% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 462k shares/day, $1.7B cap, beta 0.83 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
National Bank Holdings Corporation reports earnings on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to National Bank Holdings Corporation by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSUN FirstSun Capital Bancorp | 38.05 | 91.36 | +58% | 60Fair | $1.7B |
| BY Byline Bancorp, Inc. | 36.90 | 38.73 | +5% | 69Good | $1.7B |
| STBA S&T Bancorp, Inc. | 47.97 | 44.73 | -7% | 67Good | $1.7B |
| HAPN Happen, Inc. Common Stock | 14.67 | 32.37 | +55% | 72Good | $1.7B |
| HOPE Hope Bancorp, Inc. | 13.40 | 20.72 | +35% | 83Prime | $1.7B |
| DCOM Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. | 38.78 | 61.04 | +36% | 82Prime | $1.7B |
| BFC Bank First Corporation | 146.96 | 122.96 | -20% | 38No options | $1.6B |
| LOB Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 35.15 | 43.71 | +20% | 66Good | $1.6B |
| TCBK TriCo Bancshares | 50.77 | 49.74 | -2% | 74Good | $1.6B |
| OBK Origin Bancorp, Inc. | 51.83 | 51.20 | -1% | 65Good | $1.6B |
| QCRH QCR Holdings, Inc. | 97.21 | 328.28 | +70% | 80Prime | $1.6B |
| RBCAA Republic Bancorp, Inc. | 90.81 | 96.39 | +6% | 69Good | $1.6B |
⚖ Compare NBHC with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NBHC
Is NBHC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 37.74 the stock trades 30% below the average fair value of 53.84 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NBHC and what does it mean?
NBHC scores 76 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NBHC?
53.84 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does National Bank Holdings Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close), 4 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NBHC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 140 listed contracts with 265 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 33% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.