Stock fact sheet · data as of
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Defensive
Is NBTB undervalued?
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) closed at 50.71 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 70.30, so the price sits 28% below it. 5 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 22.22 while 10 Cap gives 120.18. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files NBTB under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for NBTB
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 71.04 | +40% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 58.65 | +16% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 114.14 | +125% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 40.93 | -19% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 45.52 | -10% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 120.18 | +137% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 114.48 | +126% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 22.22 | -56% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 45.60 | -10% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -266.78 | -626% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 56.67 | +12% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health NBTB scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.5 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.6%, ROE 8.9%, ROA 1.1% - with debt at 0.17 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.3%.
The dividend yield is 2.98% at a payout ratio of 36%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Insurance Revenue 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 7.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.5 / 10 | ROE | 8.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.17 | ROA | 1.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.3% | Payout ratio | 36% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 3 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 84: Prime
NBTB scores 84 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 24/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (10/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (12/20).
Implied volatility is 41% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 532 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 253k shares a day on a market cap of $2.6B, with a beta of 0.49 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 24 / 25 | 28% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 41% | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 253k shares/day, $2.6B cap, beta 0.49 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
NBT Bancorp Inc. reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to NBT Bancorp Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAR Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. | 12.94 | 110,792.88 | +100% | 84Prime | $2.6B |
| BOH Bank of Hawaii Corporation | 67.19 | 91.69 | +27% | 84Prime | $2.7B |
| FBK FB Financial Corporation | 51.48 | 58.33 | +12% | 73Good | $2.6B |
| TRMK Trustmark Corporation | 44.13 | 74.55 | +41% | 87Prime | $2.6B |
| BANC Banc of California, Inc. | 17.24 | 17.49 | +1% | 45Weak | $2.7B |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | 74.35 | 205.44 | +64% | 78Good | $2.5B |
| FBNC First Bancorp | 60.33 | 52.51 | -15% | 59Fair | $2.5B |
| FRME First Merchants Corporation | 39.48 | 71.94 | +45% | 79Good | $2.5B |
| FRMEP First Merchants Corporation | 25.22 | 59.08 | +57% | 39No options | $2.5B |
| BANR Banner Corporation | 67.34 | 94.59 | +29% | 80Prime | $2.5B |
| PFS Provident Financial Services, Inc. | 21.96 | 38.16 | +42% | 84Prime | $2.9B |
| CLBK Columbia Financial, Inc. | 10.82 | 4.99 | -117% | 64Fair | $2.4B |
⚖ Compare NBTB with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NBTB
Is NBTB undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 50.71 the stock trades 28% below the average fair value of 70.30 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NBTB and what does it mean?
NBTB scores 84 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NBTB?
70.30 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does NBT Bancorp Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close), 10 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NBTB have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 104 listed contracts with 532 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 41% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.