Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is NCDL undervalued?

NCDL has a margin of safety of 76%: the stock closed at 12.19 on 5 Nov 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 50.98. 6 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our scans treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.

There is a wide gap between Lynch (0.1654) and DCF (198.75). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for NCDL, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 77, growth score 70, out of 100). It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).

Nine valuation models for NCDL

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. On durability NCDL scores 5.4/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.3%, ROE 7.5%, ROA 3.2% - with debt at 1.27 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 23.2%.

The dividend yield is high at 13.21% (payout ratio 240%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.

Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 34: No options

No options are listed on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. in our nightly snapshot, so it fails the first Wheel Trade Filter (options that actually trade) (it reads 34, under 70) and is left out of every options scan; the fair value and health figures above are still useful for a plain stock position.

Volume runs at 482k shares a day on a market cap of $602M, with a beta of 0.65 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

No upcoming earnings date is recorded for NCDL in the nightly calendar.

No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Asset Management

The 12 companies below are the closest to Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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