Stock fact sheet · data as of
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · High Growth
Is NCDL undervalued?
NCDL has a margin of safety of 79%: the stock closed at 10.86 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 51.49. 7 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (3.80) and DCF (196.25). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NCDL under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for NCDL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 196.25 | +1707% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 19.16 | +76% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 15.31 | +41% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 3.80 | -65% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 58.09 | +435% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 45.86 | +322% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 90.68 | +735% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 23.69 | +118% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 10.54 | -3% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -22.32 | -306% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 12.50 | +15% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability NCDL scores 5.2/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.3%, ROE 7.5%, ROA 3.2% - with debt at 1.27 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 21.1%.
The dividend yield is high at 14.82% (payout ratio 185%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 3.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.2 / 10 | ROE | 7.5% |
| Debt / equity | 1.27 | ROA | 3.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 21.1% | Payout ratio | 185% |
| Institutions | 4 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: No options
No options are listed on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. in our nightly snapshot. The Wheel Score is therefore capped at 39 (it reads 39) and the stock is left out of every options screen; the fair value and health figures above are still useful for a plain stock position.
Volume runs at 282k shares a day on a market cap of $536M, with a beta of 0.66 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 79% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.2/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 282k shares/day, $536M cap, beta 0.66 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSIF MSC Income Fund, Inc. | 11.79 | 30.81 | +62% | 39No options | $535M |
| ETJ Eaton Vance Risk-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund | 8.00 | 9.27 | +14% | 36No options | $538M |
| AIOIX American Century Intl Opportunities - Investor Class | 12.74 | 7.22 | -76% | 21No options | $533M |
| AAISX American Beacon International Equity Fund Advisor Class | 20.35 | 1,486.56 | +99% | 39No options | $540M |
| EMD Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund Inc. | 9.30 | 38.69 | +76% | 39No options | $541M |
| VRMGX Virtus KAR Mid-Cap Growth Fund | 39.22 | 375.02 | +90% | 39No options | $542M |
| FSRRX Fidelity Strategic Real Return Fund | 9.17 | 8.78 | -4% | 33No options | $544M |
| CCID Carlyle Credit Income Fund | 24.94 | 24.99 | +0% | 23No options | $529M |
| NDMO Nuveen Dynamic Municipal Opportunities Fund | 9.00 | 13.69 | +34% | 38No options | $544M |
| SPPP Sprott Physical Platinum and Palladium Trust | 12.50 | 20.44 | +39% | 39No options | $545M |
| ACP Abrdn Income Credit Strategies Fund | 4.35 | 14.24 | +69% | 39No options | $546M |
| GAMI GAMCO Investors, Inc. | 25.50 | 41.37 | +38% | 39No options | $548M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NCDL
Is NCDL undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 10.86 the stock is 79% below the average fair value of 51.49 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of NCDL and what does it mean?
NCDL has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for NCDL?
51.49 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NCDL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on NCDL, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.