Stock fact sheet · data as of
Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. (NERV): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is NERV undervalued?
At 2.42 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NERV trades 22% over the GLS average fair value of 1.98. 0 of the 1 models land above the price and 1 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (3 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
The average is built from just 1 models (DCF) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files NERV under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for NERV
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 1.98 | -18% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -3.26 | -235% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 10.00 | +313% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. scores only 1 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 0.0/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 387.2%, ROE 208.5%, ROA -299.5% - with debt at -0.46 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 1 / 9 | ROIC | 387.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.0 / 10 | ROE | 208.5% |
| Debt / equity | -0.46 | ROA | -299.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -16252.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 18: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 18 Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 3/25, Health 2/20, Moat 0/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 7/20 - show where: Moat (0/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 169%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 15 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 159k shares a day on a market cap of $116M, with a beta of -0.12 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 7 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 3 / 25 | -22% margin of safety | |
| Health | 2 / 20 | Piotroski 1/9 | |
| Moat | 0 / 15 | moat 0.0/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 169% | |
| Stability | 7 / 20 | 159k shares/day, $116M cap, beta -0.12 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Biotechnology
The 12 companies below are the closest to Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEER Seer, Inc. | 2.08 | - | - | 33Weak | $115M |
| ARMP Armata Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 3.09 | - | - | 29Weak | $115M |
| ENGN enGene Holdings Inc. | 1.71 | 0.2775 | -516% | 24Weak | $115M |
| HURA TuHURA Biosciences, Inc. | 1.83 | - | - | 22No options | $117M |
| NRXP NRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 2.71 | 0.6997 | -287% | 26Weak | $117M |
| PYXS Pyxis Oncology, Inc. | 1.79 | 1.63 | -10% | 33Weak | $113M |
| FHTX Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. | 1.89 | - | - | 30Weak | $112M |
| GNLX Genelux Corporation | 2.48 | - | - | 35Weak | $112M |
| LENZ LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. | 3.57 | 2.36 | -51% | 22Weak | $112M |
| SPRB Spruce Biosciences, Inc. | 38.98 | 61.81 | +37% | 31No options | $112M |
| VXRT Vaxart, Inc. | 0.4600 | 4.86 | +91% | 39No options | $112M |
| CLLS Cellectis S.A. | 1.11 | - | - | 25Weak | $111M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NERV
Is NERV undervalued right now?
No: at 2.42 the stock trades 22% above the GLS average fair value of 1.98 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of NERV and what does it mean?
NERV scores 18 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NERV?
1.98 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NERV have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 30 listed contracts with 15 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 169% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.