Stock fact sheet · data as of
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores · United States · Value
Is NGVC undervalued?
At 30.60 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NGVC trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 31.11 (1.6% below fair value). 9 models produced a value and they split 3 above the price to 6 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 6.27 while 10 Cap gives 73.30. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files NGVC under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for NGVC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 6.48 | -79% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 21.98 | -28% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 29.44 | -4% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 6.27 | -80% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 41.06 | +34% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 73.30 | +140% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 69.70 | +128% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 8.83 | -71% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 22.97 | -25% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -12.59 | -141% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 40.00 | +31% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - NGVC passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.9 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.5%, ROE 21.9%, ROA 6.9% - with debt at 1.56 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 8.1%.
The dividend yield is 1.96% at a payout ratio of 28%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Gift Cards 100% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.9 / 10 | ROE | 21.9% |
| Debt / equity | 1.56 | ROA | 6.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 8.1% | Payout ratio | 28% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 59: Fair
NGVC scores 59 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 13/25, Health 11/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 16/20, Stability 8/20. Stability (8/20) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 78% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (16 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 1,110 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 145k shares a day on a market cap of $705M, with a beta of 1.22 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 13 / 25 | 2% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.9/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 78% | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 145k shares/day, $705M cap, beta 1.22 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 19 Nov 2026, 34 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Grocery Stores
The 12 companies below are the closest to Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. by market cap within the Grocery Stores industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YSWY Yesway, Inc. | 21.51 | 666.02 | +97% | 39No options | $671M |
| VLGEA Village Super Market, Inc. | 44.85 | 63.08 | +29% | 39No options | $664M |
| DNUT Krispy Kreme, Inc. | 3.10 | 4.01 | +23% | 45Weak | $538M |
| DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Limited | 2.14 | 21.20 | +90% | 69Good | $468M |
| GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | 13.06 | 6.75 | -93% | 45Weak | $1.3B |
| IMKTA Ingles Markets, Incorporated | 86.78 | 101.34 | +14% | 65Good | $1.6B |
| WMK Weis Markets, Inc. | 75.22 | 42.10 | -79% | 56Fair | $1.9B |
| SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | 64.65 | 117.83 | +45% | 93Prime | $6.0B |
| ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. | 13.03 | 46.98 | +72% | 45Weak | $6.3B |
| VHUB VenHub Global, Inc. Common Stock | 0.3694 | - | - | 21No options | $36M |
| KR The Kroger Co. | 62.71 | 42.02 | -49% | 62Fair | $37.0B |
| MSS Maison Solutions Inc. Class A Common Stock | 1.38 | - | - | 30No options | $1M |
⚖ Compare NGVC with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NGVC
Is NGVC undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 30.60 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 31.11 (1.6% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NGVC and what does it mean?
NGVC scores 59 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NGVC?
31.11 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 19 Nov 2026, 34 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NGVC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 56 listed contracts with 1,110 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 78% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.