Stock fact sheet · data as of
National Healthcare Properties, Inc. (NHP) (NHP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is NHP undervalued?
At 15.05 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NHP trades 138% over the GLS average fair value of 6.31, with 0 of 2 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (10 Cap, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files NHP under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for NHP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 10.42 | -31% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 2.21 | -85% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -21.86 | -245% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 18.40 | +22% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - NHP passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -3.5%, ROE -9.6%, ROA -3.4% - with debt at 1.74 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.6%.
The dividend yield is 1.00% with a payout ratio of -29% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Seniors Housing Communities 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | -3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.7 / 10 | ROE | -9.6% |
| Debt / equity | 1.74 | ROA | -3.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.6% | Payout ratio | -29% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 35: Weak
NHP scores 35 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 10/20, Stability 11/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 99% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (10 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 88 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 715k shares a day on a market cap of $666M, with a beta of 1.60 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 11 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -138% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.7/10 | |
| Premium | 10 / 20 | implied volatility 99% | |
| Stability | 11 / 20 | 715k shares/day, $666M cap, beta 1.60 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Dec 2026, 49 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Healthcare Facilities
The 12 companies below are the closest to National Healthcare Properties, Inc. (NHP) by market cap within the REIT - Healthcare Facilities industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHPBP National Healthcare Properties, Inc. | 25.44 | 18.34 | -39% | 23No options | $720M |
| UHT Universal Health Realty Income Trust | 37.68 | 34.24 | -10% | 49Weak | $524M |
| XRN Chiron Real Estate Inc. | 31.29 | 41.84 | +25% | 73Good | $414M |
| CHCT Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated | 13.26 | 25.07 | +47% | 75Good | $380M |
| DHC Diversified Healthcare Trust | 7.61 | 3.10 | -146% | 43Weak | $1.8B |
| DHCNI Diversified Healthcare Trust, 5.625% Senior Notes due 2042 | 17.24 | 3.10 | -457% | 20No options | $1.8B |
| MPT Medical Properties Trust, Inc. | 3.11 | 6.38 | +51% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| DHCNL Diversified Healthcare Trust | 18.23 | 3.10 | -489% | 14No options | $1.9B |
| LTC LTC Properties, Inc. | 43.34 | 41.21 | -5% | 56Fair | $2.3B |
| STRW Strawberry Fields REIT, Inc. | 13.03 | 61.39 | +79% | 39No options | $184M |
| NHI National Health Investors, Inc. | 65.67 | 76.34 | +14% | 63Fair | $3.2B |
| SBRA Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. | 19.17 | 18.28 | -5% | 65Good | $4.9B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NHP
Is NHP undervalued right now?
No: at 15.05 the stock trades 138% above the GLS average fair value of 6.31 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of NHP and what does it mean?
NHP scores 35 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NHP?
6.31 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does National Healthcare Properties, Inc. (NHP) report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Dec 2026, 49 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NHP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 64 listed contracts with 88 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 99% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.