Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is NMR undervalued?

NMR has a margin of safety of 100%: the stock closed at 9.28 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 2,645.86. 6 of the 6 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.

There is a wide gap between Lynch (230.34) and Graham Number (12,127.58). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files NMR under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.

Nine valuation models for NMR

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Nomura Holdings, Inc. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. On durability NMR scores 5.6/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.7%, ROE 9.8%, ROA 0.6% - with debt at 4.67 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 4.67 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

The dividend yield is 3.48% at a payout ratio of 0%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Brokerage Commissions 78%, Other Commissions 22% (fiscal year FY2025).

Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 80: Prime

With a Wheel Score of 80, Nomura Holdings, Inc. sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 17/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.

Implied volatility is 46% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 3,041 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 718k shares a day on a market cap of $27.7B, with a beta of 0.60 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Nomura Holdings, Inc. reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Financial - Capital Markets

The 12 companies below are the closest to Nomura Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Financial - Capital Markets industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare NMR with 7 of them   All Financial Services stocks →