Stock fact sheet · data as of
Nova Minerals Corp (NVA): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals · United States · ADR · Speculative / Distressed
Is NVA undervalued?
NVA has a margin of safety of 88%: the stock closed at 3.59 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 29.82. 1 of the 1 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The average is built from just 1 models (DCF) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files NVA under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for NVA
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 29.82 | +731% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.7921 | -78% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Nova Minerals Corp scores only 0 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 2.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -98.3%, ROE -111.8%, ROA -55.4% - with debt at 0.14 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Nova Minerals Corp pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 0 / 9 | ROIC | -98.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.7 / 10 | ROE | -111.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.14 | ROA | -55.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -1.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 Nova Minerals Corp sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 0/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 11/20 - show where: Health (0/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 244%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 1,041 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 737k shares a day on a market cap of $62M, with a beta of 0.79 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 11 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 88% margin of safety | |
| Health | 0 / 20 | Piotroski 0/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.7/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 244% | |
| Stability | 11 / 20 | 737k shares/day, $62M cap, beta 0.79 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for NVA in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Other Precious Metals
The 12 companies below are the closest to Nova Minerals Corp by market cap within the Other Precious Metals industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THMG Thunder Mountain Gold, Inc. | 0.7500 | 0.0277 | -2612% | 10No options | $70M |
| NEXM NexMetals Mining Corp. | 1.47 | 1.45 | -1% | 20No options | $52M |
| SDRC Sidney Resources Corp. | 0.1390 | 0.0000 | -704158% | 12No options | $52M |
| FURY Fury Gold Mines Limited | 0.5030 | 0.0839 | -500% | 13No options | $96M |
| HGLD Patagonia Gold Corp. | 0.2800 | - | - | 16No options | $132M |
| PLG Platinum Group Metals Ltd. | 1.10 | - | - | 37Weak | $141M |
| ACRG American Clean Resources Group, Inc. | 10.00 | - | - | 24No options | $141M |
| REA Rare Earths Americas, Inc. | 6.91 | 1.05 | -560% | 14No options | $142M |
| LODE Comstock Inc. | 1.89 | - | - | 45Weak | $144M |
| DYNR DynaResource, Inc. | 0.6300 | 1.84 | +66% | 39No options | $23M |
| GRML Greenland Mines Ltd. | 7.06 | 7.40 | +5% | 30No options | $21M |
| SBMT Silver Bow Mining Corp. | 7.26 | 0.3156 | -2200% | 12No options | $214M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NVA
Is NVA undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 3.59 the stock is 88% below the average fair value of 29.82 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of NVA and what does it mean?
NVA scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NVA?
29.82 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Nova Minerals Corp report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for NVA in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does NVA have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 38 listed contracts with 1,041 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 244% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.