Stock fact sheet · data as of
NatWest Group plc (NWG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United Kingdom · ADR · High Yield Income
Is NWG undervalued?
NWG has a margin of safety of 71%: the stock closed at 17.47 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 60.29. 7 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 9 models disagree widely: Graham Number gives 9.32 while GLS Growth gives 128.80. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files NWG under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for NWG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 105.37 | +503% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 9.32 | -47% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 54.95 | +215% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 19.16 | +10% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 128.80 | +637% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 76.05 | +335% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 115.29 | +560% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 10.30 | -41% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 23.38 | +34% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -288.45 | -1751% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 18.20 | +4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - NWG passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.3 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.1%, ROE 13.7%, ROA 0.8% - with debt at 1.69 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 5.30% (payout ratio 0%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 5.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.3 / 10 | ROE | 13.7% |
| Debt / equity | 1.69 | ROA | 0.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 84: Prime
NWG scores 84 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (8/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).
Implied volatility is 38% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 6,867 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 9.5M shares a day on a market cap of $34.7B, with a beta of 0.93; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 71% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.3/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 38% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 9.5M shares/day, $34.7B cap, beta 0.93 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
NatWest Group plc reports earnings on 30 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to NatWest Group plc by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBANL Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | 24.82 | 22.07 | -12% | 39No options | $34.2B |
| HBANZ Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | 18.56 | 16.29 | -14% | 25No options | $33.4B |
| SHG Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. | 70.71 | 123,755.24 | +100% | 85Prime | $33.3B |
| MTB M&T Bank Corporation | 218.65 | 334.98 | +35% | 83Prime | $31.6B |
| HBANM Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | 19.48 | 19.52 | +0% | 39No options | $31.1B |
| HBANP Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | 15.83 | 17.77 | +11% | 39No options | $31.1B |
| HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | 15.35 | 17.54 | +12% | 74Good | $31.0B |
| BBDO Banco Bradesco S.A. | 3.59 | 42.28 | +92% | 39No options | $40.1B |
| KB KB Financial Group Inc. | 117.88 | 54,728.61 | +100% | 79Good | $41.7B |
| BSBR Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. | 5.59 | 22.36 | +75% | 71Good | $41.9B |
| BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. | 4.03 | 44.33 | +91% | 86Prime | $43.5B |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | 63.43 | 89.86 | +29% | 86Prime | $26.7B |
⚖ Compare NWG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NWG
Is NWG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 17.47 the stock is 71% below the average fair value of 60.29 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of NWG and what does it mean?
NWG scores 84 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NWG?
60.29 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does NatWest Group plc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 30 Oct 2026 (before the open), 14 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NWG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 110 listed contracts with 6,867 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 38% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.