Roblox Corporation (RBLX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is RBLX undervalued?

RBLX closed at 47.54 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 49.71 - 4.4% below fair value, which our screens read as "fairly priced". 1 of 1 models are above the current price. There is no discount to lean on here, so the margin of safety is not the reason to look at the stock.

Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.

The nightly engine files RBLX under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for RBLX

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: RBLX passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.3 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -48.5%, ROE -270.0%, ROA -11.1% - with debt at 4.57 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.8%. Debt of 4.57 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.

Roblox Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

RBLX scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 14/25, Health 9/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 14/20, Stability 19/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 84% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (14 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 419,113 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 22.6M shares a day on a market cap of $34.0B, with a beta of 1.47 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Roblox Corporation reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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