Saratoga Investment Corp. (SAR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is SAR undervalued?

SAR has a margin of safety of 54%: the stock closed at 14.92 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 32.14. 2 of the 2 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.

Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.

The nightly engine files SAR under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for SAR

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: SAR passes 2 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.4 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 3.3%, ROE 9.2%, ROA 3.2% - with debt at 1.83 times equity and negative free cash flow.

The dividend yield is high at 21.78% (payout ratio -1120%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.

Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

SAR scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 4/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 7/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 35% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 9,851 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 143k shares a day on a market cap of $232M, with a beta of 0.62 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 7 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 6 Jan 2027, 82 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The shares go ex-dividend on 5 Nov 2026 (0.2500 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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