Stock fact sheet · data as of
ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 (SDS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Asset Management - Leveraged · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is SDS undervalued?
ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) closed at 53.71 on 16 Oct 2026, 29% above the GLS average fair value of 41.68. Only 0 of the 1 models that produced a number value the shares above the current price. The margin of safety is negative, so the stock fails the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan; a premium of this size is common for companies whose growth the models are conservative about.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files SDS under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for SDS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 41.68 | -22% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -0.5877 | -101% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: SDS passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 535.2%, ROE 395.6%, ROA -782.8% - with debt at -0.26 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 5.27% (payout ratio 0%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Transferred over Time 100% (quarter Q1 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 535.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.9 / 10 | ROE | 395.6% |
| Debt / equity | -0.26 | ROA | -782.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -0.9% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
SDS scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 0/25, Health 9/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 14/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 32% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (17 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 31,174 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.6M shares a day on a market cap of $278M, with a beta of -1.92 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -29% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 3.9/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 32% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 3.6M shares/day, $278M cap, beta -1.92 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SDS in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management - Leveraged
The 9 companies below are the closest to ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 by market cap within the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPLSX Boston Partners Long/Short Equity Fund | 18.63 | 16.97 | -10% | 32No options | $135M |
| ETHT ProShares - Ultra Ether ETF | 15.99 | 1.73 | -822% | 29Weak | $117M |
| EXMAX Eaton Vance Short Duration Muni Opps A | 9.66 | 4.59 | -110% | 27No options | $808M |
| MSTX Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF | 17.36 | - | - | 30Weak | $55M |
| ASBFX American Funds Short-Term Bond Fund of America;F1 | 9.38 | 54.28 | +83% | 39No options | $12.9B |
| XOMX Direxion Daily XOM Bull 2X ETF | 56.27 | 77.13 | +27% | 39No options | $5M |
| CONX Direxion Daily COIN Bull 2X ETF | 6.66 | 62.46 | +89% | 39No options | $5M |
| MPG Leverage Shares 2x Long MP Daily ETF | 2.79 | 24.35 | +89% | 33Weak | $906K |
| USX Corgi Total U.S. Market 2x Daily ETF | 24.57 | - | - | 15No options | $492K |
⚖ Compare SDS with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SDS
Is SDS undervalued right now?
No: at 53.71 the stock trades 29% above the GLS average fair value of 41.68 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of SDS and what does it mean?
SDS scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for SDS?
41.68 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SDS in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does SDS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 642 listed contracts with 31,174 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 32% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.