Stock fact sheet · data as of
ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 (SDS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol SDS · Financial Services · Asset Management - Leveraged · United States · Speculative Income
Is SDS undervalued?
ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) closed at 54.28 on 5 Nov 2026, 30% above the GLS average fair value of 41.68. 1 of the 1 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files SDS under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan. It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for SDS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 41.68 | -23% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -0.5877 | -101% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: SDS passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.0 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 535.2%, ROE 395.6%, ROA -782.8% - with debt at -0.26 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 5.22% (payout ratio 0%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Transferred over Time 100% (quarter Q1 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 3/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 535.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.0 / 10 | ROE | 395.6% |
| Debt / equity | -0.26 | ROA | -782.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -0.8% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 3 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 25: Weak
SDS scores 25 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 30% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $281M (under $1.0B), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat weak, health fair, red flags weak, option trading fair, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 33% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is 5,035 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 6.0M shares a day on a market cap of $281M, with a beta of -1.93 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 30% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $281M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 30% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 33% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 1.0/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 60/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 1,517 contracts a day, 5,035 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta -1.93, $281M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SDS in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management - Leveraged
The 9 companies below are the closest to ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 by market cap within the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPLSX Boston Partners Long/Short Equity Fund | 18.83 | 16.97 | -11% | 13No options | $137M |
| ETHT ProShares - Ultra Ether ETF | 15.29 | 1.78 | -761% | 10Weak | $112M |
| EXMAX Eaton Vance Short Duration Muni Opps A | 9.82 | 4.64 | -112% | 14No options | $807M |
| MSTX Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF | 14.64 | - | - | 10Weak | $46M |
| ASBFX American Funds Short-Term Bond Fund of America;F1 | 9.41 | 54.41 | +83% | 27No options | $12.9B |
| XOMX Direxion Daily XOM Bull 2X ETF | 50.88 | 77.17 | +34% | 26No options | $5M |
| CONX Direxion Daily COIN Bull 2X ETF | 4.35 | 62.46 | +93% | 21No options | $3M |
| MPG Leverage Shares 2x Long MP Daily ETF | 2.02 | 24.35 | +92% | 24Weak | $657K |
| USX Corgi Total U.S. Market 2x Daily ETF | 23.71 | - | - | 10No options | $474K |
⚖ Compare SDS with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SDS
Is SDS undervalued right now?
No: at 54.28 the stock trades 30% above the GLS average fair value of 41.68 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of SDS and what does it mean?
SDS scores 25 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 8. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for SDS?
41.68 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SDS in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does SDS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 198 listed contracts with 5,035 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 33% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.