Stock fact sheet · data as of
Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · High Growth
Is SMST undervalued?
At 14.75 (close of 16 Oct 2026), SMST trades 50% below the GLS average fair value of 29.39. That average comes from 7 models run on the latest filings, and 5 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between EPV (5.80) and DCF (57.79). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files SMST under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for SMST
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 57.79 | +292% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 15.68 | +6% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 29.85 | +102% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 13.05 | -12% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 31.95 | +117% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | 51.66 | +250% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 5.80 | -61% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2,009.03 | -13721% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.0/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -0.7%, ROE -0.7%, ROA -0.4% - with debt at 0.00 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1368.5%.
Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Property Management 66%, Asset Management 35% (quarter Q1 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | -0.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.0 / 10 | ROE | -0.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.00 | ROA | -0.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1368.5% | Payout ratio | 130% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
A Wheel Score of 61 puts Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 5/20 and Stability 14/20; the weakest part is Premium (5/20).
Implied volatility is 130%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is 2,448 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.8M shares a day on a market cap of $8M, with a beta of -3.50 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 50% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.0/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 130% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 1.8M shares/day, $8M cap, beta -3.50 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SMST in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRZL MicroSectors 3X Long Brazil ETN | 42.25 | - | - | 19No options | $8M |
| SFES Safeguard Scientifics, Inc. | 0.4700 | 29.17 | +98% | 39No options | $8M |
| ALTEX Firsthand Alternative Energy | 12.22 | 1,332.47 | +99% | 39No options | $8M |
| NMBL NovaTide Flexible Allocation ETF | 20.81 | 29.67 | +30% | 39No options | $9M |
| BBLS Munificent Seven ETF | 26.74 | 0.2032 | -13059% | 6No options | $9M |
| CAFRX Commonwealth Africa Fund | 11.84 | 371.53 | +97% | 39No options | $9M |
| WNMLA Winmill & Co. Incorporated | 5.25 | 46.20 | +89% | 39No options | $7M |
| CBRG Leverage Shares 2X Long CBRS Daily ETF | 1.66 | - | - | 30Weak | $7M |
| ICMB Investcorp Credit Management BDC, Inc. | 0.6850 | 10.44 | +93% | 45Weak | $10M |
| ACII Innovator Index Autocallable Income Strategy ETF | 25.50 | 9.22 | -177% | 8No options | $11M |
| EMES Harbor Emerging Markets Select ETF (EMES) | 26.77 | 1.76 | -1417% | 13No options | $11M |
| TWAV TaoWeave, Inc. | 1.45 | - | - | 21No options | $6M |
⚖ Compare SMST with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SMST
Is SMST undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 14.75 the stock is 50% below the average fair value of 29.39 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of SMST and what does it mean?
SMST scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for SMST?
29.39 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SMST in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does SMST have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 666 listed contracts with 2,448 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 130% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.