Stock fact sheet · data as of
Supernus, Inc. (SUPN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol SUPN · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · United States · Value Income
Is SUPN undervalued?
Supernus, Inc. (SUPN) closed at 28.21 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 87.23, which puts the price 68% below it. 5 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 8 models disagree widely: DCF gives 4.55 while GLS Growth gives 233.47. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, SUPN is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 84, growth score 61, out of 100). It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for SUPN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 4.55 | -84% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 185.36 | +557% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 78.58 | +179% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 233.47 | +728% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 23.47 | -17% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 10.40 | -63% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 119.63 | +324% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 42.37 | +50% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -11.16 | -140% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 47.67 | +69% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health SUPN scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 5.9 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 83.0%, ROE -214.3%, ROA 17.4% - with debt at -3.58 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.9%.
The dividend yield is high at 28.82% (payout ratio 0%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Product 46%, Qelbree 23%, Gocovri 11% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 83.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.9 / 10 | ROE | -214.3% |
| Debt / equity | -3.58 | ROA | 17.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.9% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 48: Weak
SUPN scores 48 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 5, can repay its debt - debt with no positive cash flow to repay it, and the parts are thin too - value strong, premium good, moat fair, health good, red flags good, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 72% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 7,569 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 6.6M shares a day on a market cap of $1.6B, with a beta of 0.52 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | debt with no positive cash flow to repay it |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 68% below fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 72% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 5.9/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 80/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 343 contracts a day, 7,569 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.52, $1.6B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SUPN in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
The 12 companies below are the closest to Supernus, Inc. by market cap within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 71.65 | 251.58 | +72% | 49Weak | $1.6B |
| ALVO Alvotech | 4.67 | - | - | 14No options | $1.7B |
| PAHC Phibro Animal Health Corporation | 39.43 | 47.35 | +17% | 43Weak | $1.6B |
| PCRX Pacira BioSciences, Inc. | 36.40 | 43.35 | +16% | 29Weak | $1.5B |
| ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 50.72 | 15.29 | -232% | 26Weak | $1.4B |
| TRLV Trulieve Cannabis Corp. | 11.60 | 25.12 | +54% | 30Weak | $2.0B |
| CRON Cronos Group Inc. | 3.51 | 2.98 | -18% | 37Weak | $1.3B |
| PRGO Perrigo Company plc | 15.83 | 47.02 | +66% | 44Weak | $2.2B |
| AMPH Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 28.02 | 45.64 | +39% | 50Fair | $1.2B |
| HCM HUTCHMED (China) Limited | 13.92 | 2.86 | -386% | 31Weak | $2.4B |
| HROW Harrow Health, Inc. | 28.75 | 4.96 | -480% | 26Weak | $1.1B |
| RGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited | 5.42 | 0.0281 | -19191% | 8Weak | $2.7B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about SUPN
Is SUPN undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 28.21 the stock is 68% below the average fair value of 87.23 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of SUPN and what does it mean?
SUPN scores 48 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for SUPN?
87.23 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Supernus, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for SUPN in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does SUPN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 130 listed contracts with 7,569 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 72% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.