Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is SUPN undervalued?

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) closed at 40.18 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 2 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 46.46, so the price sits 14% below it. 1 of the 2 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.

Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.

The nightly engine files SUPN under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for SUPN

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is weak: SUPN passes 3 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.6 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -3.5%, ROE -3.6%, ROA -2.7% - with debt at 0.04 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 0.8%.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Product 45%, Qelbree 24%, Gocovri 10% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 3/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

SUPN scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 18/25, Health 7/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 15/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.

Implied volatility is 54% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 1,839 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 907k shares a day on a market cap of $2.3B, with a beta of 0.55 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

The 12 companies below are the closest to Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. by market cap within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare SUPN with 7 of them   All Healthcare stocks →