Teekay Corporation (TK): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is TK undervalued?

Teekay Corporation (TK) closed at 14.51 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 66.64, which puts the price 78% below it. 9 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

There is a wide gap between DDM (14.71) and Graham Growth (145.04). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files TK under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.

Nine valuation models for TK

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Teekay Corporation scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.8/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 12.7%, ROE 13.5%, ROA 4.1% - with debt at 0.06 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 25.8%.

The dividend yield is high at 6.89% (payout ratio 72%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Voyage charters 56%, Voyage Charters Suezmax 31%, Other revenue 10% (fiscal year FY2025).

Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 80: Prime

With a Wheel Score of 80, Teekay Corporation sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 13/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.

Implied volatility is 43% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 7,455 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 609k shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.13 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

Teekay Corporation reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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