Stock fact sheet · data as of
trivago N.V. (TRVG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Technology · Software - Application · Germany · ADR · Blend
Is TRVG undervalued?
TRVG closed at 4.01 on 16 Oct 2026, 27% below the GLS average fair value of 5.49 from 7 models (4 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 24 of the 25 Value points.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (0.1377) and Graham Growth (11.65). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files TRVG under Blend.
Nine valuation models for TRVG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 0.6872 | -83% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 11.65 | +190% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 5.09 | +27% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.1377 | -97% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 10.03 | +150% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 8.60 | +115% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 2.26 | -44% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.9770 | -76% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 5.50 | +37% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
trivago N.V. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 3.1/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.5%, ROE 5.3%, ROA 3.1% - with debt at 0.17 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 15.6%.
trivago N.V. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Referral 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.1 / 10 | ROE | 5.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.17 | ROA | 3.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 15.6% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 53: Fair
A Wheel Score of 53 puts trivago N.V. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 24/25, Health 9/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 10/20 and Stability 6/20; the weakest part is Stability (6/20).
Implied volatility is 101% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (10 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 773 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 53k shares a day on a market cap of $283M, with a beta of 0.54 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 6 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 24 / 25 | 27% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.1/10 | |
| Premium | 10 / 20 | implied volatility 101% | |
| Stability | 6 / 20 | 53k shares/day, $283M cap, beta 0.54 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Software - Application
The 12 companies below are the closest to trivago N.V. by market cap within the Software - Application industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARQQ Arqit Quantum Inc. | 15.90 | 2.58 | -516% | 27Weak | $277M |
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| GLOO Gloo Holdings, Inc. | 3.26 | - | - | 39Weak | $268M |
| CURR Currenc Group, Inc. | 2.67 | 1.21 | -121% | 17No options | $300M |
| LAW CS Disco, Inc. | 4.69 | - | - | 35Weak | $301M |
| RBBN Ribbon Communications Inc. | 1.46 | 4.05 | +64% | 57Fair | $261M |
| AZ A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp. | 5.76 | - | - | 40Weak | $254M |
| XPER Xperi Inc. | 5.04 | 2.95 | -71% | 38Weak | $246M |
| EXFY Expensify, Inc. | 2.53 | 3.95 | +36% | 45Weak | $244M |
| RWWI Rand Worldwide, Inc. | 7.15 | 18.20 | +61% | 39No options | $240M |
| AIOT PowerFleet, Inc. | 2.49 | 3.66 | +32% | 45Weak | $334M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TRVG
Is TRVG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 4.01 the stock trades 27% below the average fair value of 5.49 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of TRVG and what does it mean?
TRVG scores 53 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TRVG?
5.49 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does trivago N.V. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TRVG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 38 listed contracts with 773 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 101% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.