Stock fact sheet · data as of
Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is TVRD undervalued?
TVRD has a margin of safety of 56%: the stock closed at 1.00 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 2.25. 1 of the 1 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DCF); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files TVRD under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for TVRD
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 2.25 | +125% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 1.53 | +53% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 8.75 | +775% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: TVRD passes 1 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -86.1%, ROE -87.0%, ROA -56.8% - with debt at 0.01 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 1 / 9 | ROIC | -86.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.5 / 10 | ROE | -87.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.01 | ROA | -56.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -187.6% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 4 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 40: Weak
TVRD scores 40 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 25/25, Health 2/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 6/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 217%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 1,701 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 75k shares a day on a market cap of $13M, with a beta of 0.37 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 6 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 56% margin of safety | |
| Health | 2 / 20 | Piotroski 1/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.5/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 217% | |
| Stability | 6 / 20 | 75k shares/day, $13M cap, beta 0.37 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026, 27 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Biotechnology
The 12 companies below are the closest to Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCRX TScan Therapeutics, Inc. | 0.2106 | - | - | 31No options | $13M |
| HIND Vyome Holdings, Inc. | 1.91 | 1.68 | -14% | 22No options | $13M |
| ALLR Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. | 0.8327 | 1.15 | +28% | 38No options | $13M |
| PTN Palatin Technologies, Inc. | 7.42 | - | - | 32No options | $13M |
| KTTA Pasithea Therapeutics Corp. | 0.4101 | 7.85 | +95% | 37No options | $14M |
| VICP Vicapsys Life Sciences, Inc. | 0.4000 | - | - | 27No options | $13M |
| LPCN Lipocine Inc. | 1.68 | 0.6721 | -150% | 15No options | $14M |
| ANEB Anebulo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.3100 | 0.3396 | +9% | 26No options | $13M |
| CTXR Citius Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.4600 | 0.9200 | +50% | 45Weak | $13M |
| BCDA BioCardia, Inc. | 0.9385 | 0.2082 | -351% | 13No options | $14M |
| SYBX Synlogic, Inc. | 1.02 | 1.18 | +14% | 28No options | $12M |
| AEON AEON Biopharma, Inc. | 0.2430 | - | - | 27No options | $12M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TVRD
Is TVRD undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 1.00 the stock is 56% below the average fair value of 2.25 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of TVRD and what does it mean?
TVRD scores 40 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TVRD?
2.25 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026, 27 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TVRD have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 30 listed contracts with 1,701 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 217% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.