Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ternium S.A. (TX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol TX · Basic Materials · Steel · Luxembourg · ADR · Value Income
TX is an American depositary share (ADR): the US listing of Ternium S.A., whose own shares trade on its home exchange. It trades in dollars during US hours; currency moves and the home country's rules also affect it, and the depositary bank charges a small yearly fee.
Is TX undervalued?
At 51.40 (close of 5 Nov 2026), TX trades 33% over the GLS average fair value of 38.52, with 1 of 8 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 8 models disagree widely: Graham Number gives 7.08 while Graham Growth gives 115.07. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, TX is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 54, growth score 12, out of 100). It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for TX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 12.32 | -76% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 7.08 | -86% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 115.07 | +124% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 43.72 | -15% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 10.41 | -80% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 47.66 | -7% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 32.37 | -37% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 39.53 | -23% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 11.86 | -77% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 57.17 | +11% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - TX passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.9 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.9%, ROE 3.6%, ROA 1.8% - with debt at 0.22 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 4.28% (payout ratio 62%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Hot rolled 41%, Coated 34%, Cold rolled 15% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.9 / 10 | ROE | 3.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.22 | ROA | 1.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -4.7% | Payout ratio | 62% |
| Institutions | 2 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 36: Weak
TX scores 36 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 33% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat fair, health fair, red flags good, option trading weak, stability good. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 38% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,753 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.3M shares a day on a market cap of $10.1B, with a beta of 1.09; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 33% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 33% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 38% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 5.9/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 80/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 1,040 contracts a day, 2,753 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 1.09, $10.1B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for TX in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Steel
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ternium S.A. by market cap within the Steel industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GGB Gerdau S.A. | 4.60 | 5.98 | +23% | 49Weak | $9.1B |
| CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | 12.84 | 22.31 | +42% | 50Fair | $7.3B |
| CMC Commercial Metals Company | 66.46 | 59.09 | -12% | 37Weak | $7.3B |
| CRS Carpenter Technology Corporation | 292.10 | 252.04 | -16% | 40Weak | $14.5B |
| PKX POSCO Holdings Inc. | 51.60 | 44.28 | -17% | 32Weak | $15.6B |
| RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | 441.95 | 213.86 | -107% | 31Weak | $22.5B |
| SIM Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. | 24.80 | 23.39 | -6% | 19No options | $4.1B |
| STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | 240.12 | 129.26 | -86% | 42Weak | $34.1B |
| MT ArcelorMittal S.A. | 62.49 | 52.01 | -20% | 41Weak | $47.1B |
| WS Worthington Steel, Inc. | 40.48 | 25.82 | -57% | 25Weak | $2.1B |
| NUE Nucor Corporation | 267.91 | 161.98 | -65% | 44Weak | $60.8B |
| SID Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional | 0.7766 | 8.77 | +91% | 27Weak | $1.0B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TX
Is TX undervalued right now?
No: at 51.40 the stock trades 33% above the GLS average fair value of 38.52 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of TX and what does it mean?
TX scores 36 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 3, 4. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for TX?
38.52 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ternium S.A. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for TX in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does TX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 32 listed contracts with 2,753 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 38% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.
Is TX an ADR?
Yes. TX is an American depositary share (ADR): the US listing of Ternium S.A., whose own shares trade on its home exchange. It trades in dollars during US hours; currency moves and the home country's rules also affect it, and the depositary bank charges a small yearly fee.