TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is TXMD undervalued?

TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) closed at 1.97 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 1 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 5.39, which puts the price 63% below it. 1 of the 1 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

The average is built from just 1 models (10 Cap) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.

The nightly engine files TXMD under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for TXMD

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

TherapeuticsMD, Inc. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.9/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -1.7%, ROE -2.1%, ROA -1.5% - with debt at 0.23 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 13.7%.

TherapeuticsMD, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Other Operating 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).

Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

With a Wheel Score of 45 TherapeuticsMD, Inc. sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 7/20, Stability 6/20 - show where: Moat (3/15) scores lowest.

Implied volatility is 110% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (7 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 646 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 7k shares a day on a market cap of $23M, with a beta of 0.65 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 6 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 17 Nov 2026, 32 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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