Stock fact sheet · data as of
Welltower Inc. (WELL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities · United States · High Growth
Is WELL undervalued?
At 232.17 (close of 16 Oct 2026), WELL trades 167% over the GLS average fair value of 87.04, with 0 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 9 models disagree widely: EPV gives 21.22 while DCF gives 188.68. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files WELL under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for WELL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 188.68 | -19% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 53.19 | -77% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 88.12 | -62% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 36.95 | -84% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 116.91 | -50% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 83.60 | -64% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 149.56 | -36% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 45.17 | -81% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 21.22 | -91% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -19.69 | -108% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 257.08 | +11% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - WELL passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.5%, ROE 2.2%, ROA 1.4% - with debt at 0.51 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.6%.
The dividend yield is 1.32% with a payout ratio of 152% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Resident fees and services 84%, Rental income 13%, Interest income 2% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.9 / 10 | ROE | 2.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.51 | ROA | 1.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.6% | Payout ratio | 152% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 54: Fair
WELL scores 54 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 15/20, Stability 20/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 30% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (15 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 55,107 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 3.3M shares a day on a market cap of $167.3B, with a beta of 0.75 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -167% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.9/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 30% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 3.3M shares/day, $167.3B cap, beta 0.75 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Welltower Inc. reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Healthcare Facilities
The 12 companies below are the closest to Welltower Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Healthcare Facilities industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTR Ventas, Inc. | 84.31 | 44.03 | -91% | 53Fair | $43.2B |
| OHI Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. | 45.53 | 41.55 | -10% | 61Fair | $13.8B |
| DOC Healthpeak Properties, Inc. | 18.96 | 10.83 | -75% | 53Fair | $13.1B |
| AHR American Healthcare REIT, Inc. | 53.01 | 20.81 | -155% | 58Fair | $11.5B |
| CTRE CareTrust REIT, Inc. | 36.59 | 43.78 | +16% | 80Prime | $8.6B |
| HR Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | 17.36 | 12.42 | -40% | 45Weak | $6.0B |
| SBRA Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. | 19.17 | 18.28 | -5% | 65Good | $4.9B |
| NHI National Health Investors, Inc. | 65.67 | 76.34 | +14% | 63Fair | $3.2B |
| LTC LTC Properties, Inc. | 43.34 | 41.21 | -5% | 56Fair | $2.3B |
| DHCNL Diversified Healthcare Trust | 18.23 | 3.10 | -489% | 14No options | $1.9B |
| MPT Medical Properties Trust, Inc. | 3.11 | 6.38 | +51% | 45Weak | $1.9B |
| DHCNI Diversified Healthcare Trust, 5.625% Senior Notes due 2042 | 17.24 | 3.10 | -457% | 20No options | $1.8B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about WELL
Is WELL undervalued right now?
No: at 232.17 the stock trades 167% above the GLS average fair value of 87.04 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of WELL and what does it mean?
WELL scores 54 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for WELL?
87.04 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Welltower Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Oct 2026 (after the close), 10 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does WELL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 736 listed contracts with 55,107 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 30% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.