Stock fact sheet · data as of
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XFOR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is XFOR undervalued?
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XFOR) closed at 2.45 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 1 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 18.79, which puts the price 87% below it. 1 of the 1 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The average is built from just 1 models (DCF) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files XFOR under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for XFOR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 18.79 | +667% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 1.59 | -35% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 11.50 | +369% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 0.9/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -30.0%, ROE -42.5%, ROA -27.3% - with debt at 0.41 times equity and negative free cash flow.
X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from License and Other Revenue 73%, Product 27% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 0.9 / 10 | ROE | -42.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.41 | ROA | -27.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -34.5% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 45 X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 7/20, Moat 1/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 11/20 - show where: Moat (1/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 137%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is 9,426 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 704k shares a day on a market cap of $243M, with a beta of 0.35 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 11 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 87% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 1 / 15 | moat 0.9/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 137% | |
| Stability | 11 / 20 | 704k shares/day, $243M cap, beta 0.35 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Biotechnology
The 12 companies below are the closest to X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCKT Rocket Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 2.21 | 0.4741 | -366% | 26Weak | $243M |
| GALT Galectin Therapeutics Inc. | 3.71 | - | - | 29Weak | $244M |
| SGMT Sagimet Biosciences Inc. | 7.55 | 1.05 | -621% | 29Weak | $246M |
| QTTB Q32 Bio Inc. | 8.01 | 66.58 | +88% | 69Good | $238M |
| ACIU AC Immune S.A. | 2.45 | - | - | 33Weak | $249M |
| BBOT BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics Inc. | 2.95 | 11.88 | +75% | 36No options | $237M |
| LCTX Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc. | 0.9903 | - | - | 39Weak | $250M |
| IMRX Immuneering Corporation | 3.64 | 2.80 | -30% | 23Weak | $235M |
| GWIN Glorywin Entertainment Group, Inc. | 0.6590 | - | - | 19No options | $235M |
| BCYC Bicycle Therapeutics plc | 3.60 | - | - | 45Weak | $252M |
| VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 4.22 | - | - | 43Weak | $255M |
| IKT Inhibikase Therapeutics, Inc. | 1.83 | 1.41 | -30% | 16No options | $255M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about XFOR
Is XFOR undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 2.45 the stock is 87% below the average fair value of 18.79 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of XFOR and what does it mean?
XFOR scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for XFOR?
18.79 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does XFOR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 30 listed contracts with 9,426 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 137% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.