Stock fact sheet · data as of
Exagen Inc. (XGN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Medical - Diagnostics & Research · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is XGN undervalued?
At 8.42 (close of 16 Oct 2026), XGN has no GLS fair value: every one of the nine models needs a positive input (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -0.78 and it pays no dividend), so the margin of safety is blank and the Wheel Score cannot be computed. Our screens leave the stock out at the first rule. What can be said from the nightly row is below.
The nightly engine files XGN under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for XGN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.3434 | -96% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 8.00 | -5% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Exagen Inc. scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 1.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -46.2%, ROE -114.3%, ROA -34.4% - with debt at 1.47 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Exagen Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Reportable 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.7 / 10 | ROE | -114.3% |
| Debt / equity | 1.47 | ROA | -34.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -3.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 43: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 43 Exagen Inc. sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 13/25, Health 7/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 14/20, Stability 8/20 - show where: Moat (3/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 85% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (14 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 552 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 612k shares a day on a market cap of $204M, with a beta of 2.12 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 13 / 25 | 0% margin of safety | |
| Health | 7 / 20 | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.7/10 | |
| Premium | 14 / 20 | implied volatility 85% | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 612k shares/day, $204M cap, beta 2.12 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Medical - Diagnostics & Research
The 12 companies below are the closest to Exagen Inc. by market cap within the Medical - Diagnostics & Research industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDSX Biodesix, Inc. | 24.71 | - | - | 30No options | $201M |
| IMDX Insight Molecular Diagnostics Inc. | 3.06 | - | - | 28Weak | $100M |
| MYGN Myriad Genetics, Inc. | 4.35 | - | - | 45Weak | $416M |
| FLGT Fulgent Genetics, Inc. | 21.34 | 4.31 | -395% | 41Weak | $587M |
| MDXH MDxHealth S.A. | 0.6036 | - | - | 35No options | $58M |
| CSTL Castle Biosciences, Inc. | 33.80 | 4.68 | -622% | 38Weak | $1.0B |
| PRPO Precipio, Inc. | 22.25 | 9.87 | -125% | 21No options | $40M |
| OPK OPKO Health, Inc. | 1.61 | 0.1839 | -776% | 40Weak | $1.2B |
| IDXG Interpace Biosciences, Inc. | 5.27 | 105.34 | +95% | 39No options | $31M |
| BIOQ Bioqual, Inc. | 33.00 | 21.90 | -51% | 18No options | $30M |
| BIAF bioAffinity Technologies, Inc. | 3.96 | - | - | 28No options | $25M |
| PSNL Personalis, Inc. | 15.90 | - | - | 45Weak | $1.7B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about XGN
Is XGN undervalued right now?
The GLS models could not value XGN (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -0.78 and it pays no dividend), so there is no fair value or margin of safety to compare the price of 8.42 against.
What is the Wheel Score of XGN and what does it mean?
XGN scores 43 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for XGN?
None of the nine GLS models produced a positive value for XGN (the company lost money over the last twelve months, EPS -0.78 and it pays no dividend), so there is no GLS fair value tonight.
When does Exagen Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does XGN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 58 listed contracts with 552 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 85% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.