Stock fact sheet · data as of
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AAL · Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Services · United States · Speculative
Is AAL undervalued?
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) closed at 13.63 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 2 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 152.59, which puts the price 91% below it. 2 of the 2 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
Only 2 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files AAL under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for AAL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 270.89 | +1887% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 34.30 | +152% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -80.43 | -690% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 17.58 | +29% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: AAL passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.5 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.3%, ROE -3.0%, ROA 0.2% - with debt at -9.65 times equity and negative free cash flow.
American Airlines Group Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Passenger 50%, Passenger Travel 46%, Product and Service, Other 4% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 0.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.5 / 10 | ROE | -3.0% |
| Debt / equity | -9.65 | ROA | 0.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -1.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 50: Fair
AAL scores 50 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-69) because it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); and filter 5, can repay its debt - 8.2 years to repay its debt (over 3). A stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to reach 70. Otherwise the parts read: value strong, premium strong, moat fair, health fair, red flags fair, option trading strong, stability fair.
Implied volatility is 50% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 863,480 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 75.4M shares a day on a market cap of $9.0B, with a beta of 1.45 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 8.2 years to repay its debt (over 3) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 91% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 50% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 3.5/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 77/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 135,644 contracts a day, 863,480 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.45, $9.0B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 26 Jan 2027, 82 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Airlines, Airports & Air Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to American Airlines Group Inc. by market cap within the Airlines, Airports & Air Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASR Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. | 265.59 | 414.76 | +36% | 45Weak | $7.8B |
| PAC Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. | 246.55 | 219.35 | -12% | 21No options | $12.8B |
| CPA Copa Holdings, S.A. | 145.89 | 320.23 | +54% | 79Good | $6.0B |
| LTM LATAM Airlines Group S.A. | 47.78 | 162.49 | +71% | 81Good | $13.7B |
| OMAB Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. | 108.39 | 135.02 | +20% | 43Weak | $5.2B |
| JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. | 5.05 | 0.2597 | -1844% | 20Weak | $5.0B |
| ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. | 40.00 | - | - | 33Weak | $4.5B |
| CAAP Corporacion America Airports S.A. | 25.14 | 65.51 | +62% | 47Weak | $4.1B |
| LUV Southwest Airlines Co. | 46.42 | 36.25 | -28% | 42Weak | $22.7B |
| SKYW SkyWest, Inc. | 82.41 | 215.92 | +62% | 44Weak | $3.1B |
| ALGT Allegiant Travel Company | 81.53 | 101.91 | +20% | 35Weak | $2.2B |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | 115.76 | 301.67 | +62% | 92Prime | $37.6B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AAL
Is AAL undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 13.63 the stock is 91% below the average fair value of 152.59 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AAL and what does it mean?
AAL scores 50 out of 100 (Fair) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 4, 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AAL?
152.59 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 2 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does American Airlines Group Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Jan 2027, 82 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AAL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 280 listed contracts with 863,480 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 50% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.