Stock fact sheet · data as of
Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (AARD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is AARD undervalued?
Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (AARD) closed at 3.86 on 16 Oct 2026, 87% above the GLS average fair value of 2.06. 1 of the 1 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DCF); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files AARD under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for AARD
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 2.06 | -47% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 4.63 | +20% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 3.00 | -22% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: AARD passes 1 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.0 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -53.8%, ROE -54.0%, ROA -49.1% - with debt at 0.00 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 6/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 7 Oct 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 1 / 9 | ROIC | -53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.0 / 10 | ROE | -54.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.00 | ROA | -49.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -82.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 6 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 10: Weak
AARD scores 10 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 2/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 0/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 199%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 1,552 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 69k shares a day on a market cap of $84M, with a beta of 3.81 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 0 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -87% margin of safety | |
| Health | 2 / 20 | Piotroski 1/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 2.0/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 199% | |
| Stability | 0 / 20 | 69k shares/day, $84M cap, beta 3.81 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026, 27 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Biotechnology
The 12 companies below are the closest to Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRBP Corbus Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc. | 4.33 | 1.97 | -120% | 24Weak | $84M |
| EQ Equillium, Inc. | 1.32 | 0.3155 | -318% | 15Weak | $84M |
| OKUR OnKure Therapeutics, Inc. | 2.13 | 4.23 | +50% | 45Weak | $86M |
| TNYA Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. | 0.3905 | 0.5664 | +31% | 45Weak | $88M |
| NMRA Neumora Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock | 0.4270 | 1.10 | +61% | 43Weak | $80M |
| RLYB Rallybio Corporation | 16.91 | 120.56 | +86% | 39No options | $90M |
| NTHI Neonc Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 2.75 | - | - | 27No options | $79M |
| ADAG Adagene Inc. | 2.40 | - | - | 36No options | $90M |
| PDSB PDS Biotechnology Corporation | 1.41 | 0.1443 | -877% | 23Weak | $79M |
| PTHS Pelthos Therapeutics Inc. | 20.25 | 92.90 | +78% | 36No options | $78M |
| TELO Telomir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock | 1.05 | 0.1992 | -427% | 13No options | $77M |
| NTRB Nutriband Inc. | 6.27 | - | - | 24No options | $76M |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AARD
Is AARD undervalued right now?
No: at 3.86 the stock trades 87% above the GLS average fair value of 2.06 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of AARD and what does it mean?
AARD scores 10 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AARD?
2.06 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026, 27 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AARD have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 48 listed contracts with 1,552 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 199% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.