Stock fact sheet · data as of
The AES Corporation (AES): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AES · Utilities · Diversified Utilities · United States · Blend Income
Is AES undervalued?
At 14.90 (close of 5 Nov 2026), AES trades 65% below the GLS average fair value of 42.67. That average comes from 7 models run on the latest filings, and 5 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns The AES Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between 10 Cap (6.69) and GLS Growth (156.87). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for AES, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 73, growth score 53, out of 100). It also carries the Income tag (Income = a dividend yield of 4% or more).
Nine valuation models for AES
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 21.49 | +44% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 56.72 | +281% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 18.11 | +22% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 156.87 | +953% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 6.69 | -55% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 10.36 | -30% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 28.47 | +91% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -46.73 | -414% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 18.75 | +26% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
The AES Corporation scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. On durability AES scores 6.4/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.6%, ROE 13.8%, ROA 1.8% - with debt at 4.40 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 4.40 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 4.72% (payout ratio 27%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Energy Infrastructure 43%, Utilities 30%, Renewables 27% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.4 / 10 | ROE | 13.8% |
| Debt / equity | 4.40 | ROA | 1.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -14.3% | Payout ratio | 27% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 55: Fair
A Wheel Score of 55 keeps The AES Corporation under 70, the mark only a stock that passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters can reach: it fails filter 5, can repay its debt - 6.0 years to repay its debt (over 6). The parts: value strong, premium good, moat good, health strong, red flags strong, option trading strong, stability good.
Implied volatility is 76% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 111,190 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 14.2M shares a day on a market cap of $10.6B, with a beta of 0.93; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Fails | 6.0 years to repay its debt (over 6) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 65% below fair value | |
| Premium | Good | implied volatility 76% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.4/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 90/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 3,188 contracts a day, 111,190 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 0.93, $10.6B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AES in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Diversified Utilities
The 9 companies below are the closest to The AES Corporation by market cap within the Diversified Utilities industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SREA Sempra | 18.82 | 25.40 | +26% | 34No options | $12.3B |
| BIP Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. | 38.17 | 26.63 | -43% | 26Weak | $17.6B |
| AQNB Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. | 25.57 | 15.25 | -68% | 21No options | $18.8B |
| BIPH Brookfield Infrastructure Finance ULC 5 % Notes 2021-24.05.81 Global | 15.25 | 18.88 | +19% | 21No options | $5.6B |
| AQN Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. | 5.64 | 3.35 | -68% | 31Weak | $4.3B |
| AVA Avista Corporation | 40.17 | 39.98 | -0% | 23Weak | $3.4B |
| SRE Sempra | 82.90 | 54.43 | -52% | 33Weak | $54.2B |
| UTL Unitil Corporation | 56.54 | 34.87 | -62% | 30Weak | $1.0B |
| TVC Tennessee Valley Authority | 23.88 | 18,707.36 | +100% | 31No options | $13M |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AES
Is AES undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 14.90 the stock is 65% below the average fair value of 42.67 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AES and what does it mean?
AES scores 55 out of 100 (Fair) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 5. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AES?
42.67 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The AES Corporation report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for AES in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does AES have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 72 listed contracts with 111,190 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 76% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.