Stock fact sheet · data as of
The AES Corporation (AES): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Diversified Utilities · United States · High Yield Income
Is AES undervalued?
At 14.97 (close of 16 Oct 2026), AES trades 67% below the GLS average fair value of 45.69. That average comes from 7 models run on the latest filings, and 5 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns The AES Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between DDM (10.36) and GLS Growth (163.83). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AES under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for AES
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 20.43 | +36% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 62.87 | +320% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 20.77 | +39% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 163.83 | +994% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 11.85 | -21% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 10.36 | -31% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 29.73 | +99% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -46.73 | -412% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 18.75 | +25% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
The AES Corporation scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 2.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.6%, ROE 13.8%, ROA 1.8% - with debt at 4.40 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 4.40 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 4.70% (payout ratio 26%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Energy Infrastructure 43%, Utilities 30%, Renewables 27% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.7 / 10 | ROE | 13.8% |
| Debt / equity | 4.40 | ROA | 1.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -16.1% | Payout ratio | 26% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 76: Good
With a Wheel Score of 76 - the Good band - The AES Corporation clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 14/20, Stability 20/20; Moat (4/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 29% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (14 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 176,107 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 10.7M shares a day on a market cap of $10.7B, with a beta of 0.95; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 67% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.7/10 | |
| Premium | 14 / 20 | implied volatility 29% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 10.7M shares/day, $10.7B cap, beta 0.95 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium. The shares go ex-dividend on 30 Oct 2026 (0.1759 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Diversified Utilities
The 9 companies below are the closest to The AES Corporation by market cap within the Diversified Utilities industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SREA Sempra | 18.83 | 25.71 | +27% | 39No options | $12.3B |
| BIP Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. | 37.27 | 26.64 | -40% | 48Weak | $17.2B |
| AQNB Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. | 25.63 | 17.93 | -43% | 31No options | $18.8B |
| BIPH Brookfield Infrastructure Finance ULC 5 % Notes 2021-24.05.81 Global | 15.33 | 28.60 | +46% | 39No options | $5.6B |
| AQN Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. | 5.20 | 3.35 | -55% | 53Fair | $4.0B |
| AVA Avista Corporation | 36.18 | 37.49 | +3% | 65Good | $3.0B |
| SRE Sempra | 81.99 | 54.49 | -50% | 52Fair | $53.6B |
| UTL Unitil Corporation | 53.20 | 34.16 | -56% | 48Weak | $970M |
| TVC Tennessee Valley Authority | 23.82 | 17,297.56 | +100% | 39No options | $13M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AES
Is AES undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 14.97 the stock is 67% below the average fair value of 45.69 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AES and what does it mean?
AES scores 76 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AES?
45.69 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The AES Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AES have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 326 listed contracts with 176,107 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 29% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.